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Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Warr
  • Arief Anshory Yusuf

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected Indonesia severely. It was initially an urban event, but the loss of urban jobs has induced a large urban to rural migration, which we call de-urbanisation. This phenomenon temporarily reversed the long-term process of rural to urban reallocation of labour. In early 2021 the approximate size of this de-urbanisation was known, but not its effects. This paper analyses the general equilibrium consequences of this overlooked feature of the pandemic. The analysis shows that taking deurbanisation into account, the negative economic impact of the pandemic is largest among rural, not urban households, especially the poorest.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Warr & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2021. "Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2021-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2021-08
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    File URL: https://acde.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/acde_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/acde_td_warr_yusuf_2021_08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Warr, 2008. "World food prices and poverty incidence in a food exporting country: a multihousehold general equilibrium analysis for Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 525-537, November.
    2. Hertel,Thomas W. (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643740.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    4. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    5. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200604, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2006.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    De-industrialisation; Indonesia; COVID-19; structural change; rural poverty; urban poverty; inequality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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