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Vulnerability as Expected Poverty in Rural India

Author

Listed:
  • Raghbendra Jha
  • Woojin Kang
  • Hari K. Nagarajan
  • Kailash C. Pradhan

Abstract

Using a unique panel data for rural India for the periods 1999 and 2006 this paper models vulnerability to poverty. We quantify household vulnerability in rural India in 1999 and 2006, investigate the determinants of ex post poverty as well as ex ante vulnerability, assess the role of ex ante vulnerability on poverty shift during the sample periods (i.e. movement into/out of poverty) and finally, examine how the effects of the determinants of vulnerability vary at different points across the vulnerability distribution. We conclude that over time economic growth has reduced the incidence of poverty. Although chronic poverty is relatively small the high incidence of transient poverty underscores the importance of covariate and idiosyncratic shocks. Household vulnerability across the distribution of such vulnerability is also investigated. A number of factors affect such vulnerability across this distribution. Thus the paper isolates a number of characteristics of households and policy variables which can be targeted to reduce the incidence of vulnerability in rural India.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghbendra Jha & Woojin Kang & Hari K. Nagarajan & Kailash C. Pradhan, 2012. "Vulnerability as Expected Poverty in Rural India," ASARC Working Papers 2012-04, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:asarcc:2012-04
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/asarc/pdf/papers/2012/WP2012_04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Woojin Kang, 2011. "Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3603-3618.
    2. Suryahadi, Asep*Sumarto, Sudarno*Suharso, Yusuf*, 2000. "The evolution of poverty during the crisis in Indonesia, 1996-99," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2435, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paola A. Barrientos Q. & Niels-Hugo Blunch & Nabanita Datta Gupta, 2015. "Income Convergence and the Flow out of Poverty in India, 1994-2005," Economics Working Papers 2015-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vulnerability; Poverty; Covariate and Idiosyncratic shocks; REDS data; India;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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