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The AI-Driven Skill Premium: A Model of Positional Scarcity and Cognitive Traps

Author

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  • Manuel A. Hidalgo-Pérez

    (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

Abstract

This paper models the impact of Generative AI on labor inequality by endogenizing technological complementarity (β) as a function of human capital (h) and supervision costs (σ). I introduce "Positional Capital" (W) -workers' material conditions'- as a key determinant of adaptation capacity, showing how precarity generates transition traps. The framework accounts for the "expert paradox", cognitive decapitalization through AI dependency, and the micro-macro productivity disconnect. Calibrated simulations indicate that the wage inequality ratio rises from 1.33x to 2.12x within a decade under current technological trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel A. Hidalgo-Pérez, 2026. "The AI-Driven Skill Premium: A Model of Positional Scarcity and Cognitive Traps," Working Papers 26.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:26.01
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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