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OPTIMAL CARBON PRICING IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model

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  • Frederick van der Ploeg
  • Armon Rezai

Abstract

The general equilibrium model developed by Golosov et al. (2014), GHKT for short, is modified to allow for additional negative impacts of global warming on utility and productivity growth, mean reversion in the ratio of climate damages to production, labour-augmenting technical progress, and population growth. We also replace the GHKT assumption of full depreciation of capital each decade by annual logarithmic depreciation. Furthermore, we allow the government to use a lower discount rate than the private sector. We derive a tractable rule for the optimal carbon price for each of these extensions. We then simplify the GHKT model by modelling temperature as cumulative emissions and calibrating it to Burke et al. (2015) damages. Finally, we consider how the rule for the optimal carbon price must be modified to allow for a temperature cap, and what this implies for stranded oil and gas reserves. We illustrate our analytical results with a range of optimal policy simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2021. "OPTIMAL CARBON PRICING IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model," OxCarre Working Papers 227, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:227
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    1. Espinosa, Cristian & Gutierrez Cubillos, Pablo & Castro Nofal, Bastián, 2025. "The carbon tax as an automatic stabilizer in a commodity-producing Small Open Economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 835-853.
    2. Christian Schoder & Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2024. "A climate-fiscal policy mix to achieve Türkiye’s net-zero ambition under feasibility constraints," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 331-359, April.
    3. Campiglio, Emanuele & Lamperti, Francesco & Terranova, Roberta, 2024. "Believe me when I say green! Heterogeneous expectations and climate policy uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Belfiori, Elisa & Rezai, Armon, 2024. "Implicit carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Guo, Jian & Zhong, Minghao & Chen, Shuran, 2022. "Analysis and simulation of BECCS vertical integration model in China based on evolutionary game and system dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    6. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Lafforgue, Gilles, 2025. "Optimal adaptation policies under a carbon budget constraint," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Benmir, Ghassane & Mori, Aditya & Roman, Josselin & Tarsia, Romano, 2025. "Beneath the trees: the influence of natural capital on shadow price dynamics in a macroeconomic model with uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128516, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Campiglio, Emanuele & Spiganti, Alessandro & Wiskich, Anthony, 2024. "Clean innovation, heterogeneous financing costs, and the optimal climate policy mix," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Federico Lubello, 2024. "From Brown to Green: Climate Transition and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-20, October.
    10. Abiry, Raphael & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Ludwig, Alexander & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "Climate change mitigation: How effective is green quantitative easing?," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Lorenzo Forni & Mehrab Kiarsi, 2023. "Optimal Climate and Monetary-Fiscal Policy in a Climate-DSGE Framework," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0299, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    12. Chen, An & Gerick, Leonard & Jin, Zhuo, 2025. "Optimizing portfolios under carbon risk constraints: Setting effective constraints to favor green investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Schoder, Christian & Tercioglu, Remzi Baris, 2023. "A Climate-Fiscal Policy Mix to Achieve Türkiye’s Net-Zero Ambition under Feasibility Constraints," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10551, The World Bank.
    14. Sareh Vosooghi & Maria Arvaniti & Rick van der Ploeg, 2022. "Self-Enforcing Climate Coalitions for Farsighted Countries: Integrated Analysis of Heterogeneous Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 9768, CESifo.
    15. Feng, Zhuo, 2026. "An optimal control approach to carbon pricing and green technology investment under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander, 2023. "Carbon taxes and the geography of fossil lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. David Comerford & Alessandro Spiganti, 2023. "The Carbon Bubble: climate policy in a fire‐sale model of deleveraging," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(3), pages 655-687, July.
    18. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2024. "The role of macroprudential policies under carbon pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 858-875.
    19. Emanuele Campiglio & Alessandro Spiganti & Anthony Wiskich, 2023. "Clean innovation and heterogeneous financing costs," Working Papers 2023: 07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. Jin, Wei & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Zhang, Lin, 2024. "How clean capital slows down disinvestment of carbon-intensive capital in the low-carbon transition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    21. Adão, Bernardino & Narajabad, Borghan & Temzelides, Ted, 2024. "Renewable technology adoption costs and economic growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    22. Banerjee, Rhythm, 2024. "Shifting Tides: the Effect of Institutional Divestments on the Global Market," MPRA Paper 121922, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2024.
    23. Kiarsi, Mehrab & Masoudi, Nahid, 2025. "Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    24. Marco Carli, 2025. "Green Ambiguity," CEIS Research Paper 591, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Feb 2025.

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    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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