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The Determinants of Extreme Commodity Prices

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  • Karlygash Kuralbayeva
  • Samuel Malone

Abstract

Fat-tailed commodity price innovations are well-documented in the literature and long recognized as disruptive for consumers and producers, yet little is known about what factors drive such extreme events. Utilizing a wide range of factors from the economiccs and finance literature and quantile regression techniques, we shed light on this issue. Our models explain more variation in extreme than in median price innovations. Common global financial and demand factors account for a greater proportion of extreme aily spot price variations than do commodity-specific factors such as basis and open interest. Financialization of commodity markets, via significant and increasing co-variation of extreme spot price innovations with US equity market and trade-weighted US dollar returns, appears to be a major driver of extreme events in the 2000-09 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Karlygash Kuralbayeva & Samuel Malone, 2012. "The Determinants of Extreme Commodity Prices," OxCarre Working Papers 096, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:096
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    File URL: http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/images/stories/papers/ResearchPapers/oxcarrerp201296.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández-Val & Alfred Galichon, 2010. "Rearranging Edgeworth–Cornish–Fisher expansions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 42(2), pages 419-435, February.
    3. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    4. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    5. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michelle L. Barnes & Anthony W. Hughes, 2002. "A quantile regression analysis of the cross section of stock market returns," Working Papers 02-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Szafranek, 2015. "Financialisation of the commodity markets. Conclusions from the VARX DCC GARCH," EcoMod2015 8554, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities price returns; extreme dependence; quantile regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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