Technological Progress and Population Growth: Do we have too few children?
Do we have too few children? We intend to address this question. In developed countries, the fertility rate has declined since WWII. This may cause a slowdown in the growth of GDP in developed countries. However, important factors for the well-being of individuals are per capita variables, like per capita growth and per capita consumption. In turn, the rate of technological progress determines the growth rates of per capita variables. If the population size is increasing, the labour inputs for R&D activity increase, and thus speed up technological progress. As individuals do not take account of this positive effect when deciding the number of their own children, the number of children may become smaller than the socially optimal number of children. However, an increase in the number of children reduces the assets any one child owns: that is, there is a capital dilution effect. This works in the opposite direction. We examine this issue using an endogenous growth model where the head of a dynastic family decides the number of children.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2009|
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- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas Steger, 2006.
"Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numberical Procedure,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1745, CESifo Group Munich.
- Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 301-319, June.
- Karl-Josef Koch & Timo Trimborn & Thomas M. Steger, 2005. "Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 121-05, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas M. Steger, 2004. "Multi-dimensional transitional dynamics : a simple numerical procedure," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 04/35, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2003:i:4:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lutz G. Arnold, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Jones R&D Growth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 143-152, January.
- Thomas M. Steger, 2003. "The Segerstrom Model: Stability, Speed of Convergence and Policy Implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(4), pages 1-8.
- Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, "undated".
"Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
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