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Technological Progress And Population Growth: Do We Have Too Few Children?

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  • KOICHI FUTAGAMI
  • TAKEO HORI

Abstract

Do we have too few children? We intend to address this question. In developed countries, the fertility rate has declined since WWII. This may cause a slowdown in the growth of GDP in developed countries. However, important factors for the well‐being of individuals are per capita variables, like per capita growth and per capita consumption. In turn, the rate of technological progress determines the growth rates of per capita variables. If the population size is increasing, the labour inputs for R&D activity increase, and thus speed up technological progress. As individuals do not take account of this positive effect when deciding on the number of their own children, the number of children may become smaller than the socially optimal number of children. However, an increase in the number of children reduces the assets any one child owns: that is, there is a capital dilution effect. This works in the opposite direction. We examine this issue using an endogenous growth model where the head of a dynastic family decides the number of children.

Suggested Citation

  • Koichi Futagami & Takeo Hori, 2010. "Technological Progress And Population Growth: Do We Have Too Few Children?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 64-84, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:61:y:2010:i:1:p:64-84
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5876.2009.00508.x
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    1. Lutz G. Arnold, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Jones R&D Growth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 143-152, January.
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    4. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
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    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2003:i:4:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Koichi FUTAGAMI & Kunihiko KONISHI, 2017. "Population Dynamics, Longer Life Expectancy, and Child-Rearing Policies in an R&D-based Growth Model with Overlapping Generations," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 193, pages 21-49, March.
    2. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    3. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    4. Ichiroh Daitoh, 2020. "Rates of Population Decline in Solow and Semi-Endogenous Growth Models: Empirical Relevance and the Role of Child Rearing Cost," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-004, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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