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Lessons for COVID-19 from past pandemics: Macro-economic consequences of 1968 H3N2 influenza pandemic in United States

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  • Al Saqib Majumder, Abdullah

Abstract

Mortality and economic consequences during the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic provide plausible lower bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for the H3N2 pandemic mortality rate in the United States imply deaths of around 361,000 when applied to current US population. We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic’s economic effects in the United States, using annual economic indicator data for the country from 1961-1990. Using excess mortality rate as a proxy for the severity of the pandemic and Vietnam war mortality rate as a proxy for the effects of war, we find that the pandemic is associated with decline in net exports while Vietnam war is associated with decline in unemployment, private consumption and total factor productivity. Our main findings highlight the different nature of war and pandemic and reveals economic mechanisms of pandemic diffusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Al Saqib Majumder, Abdullah, 2024. "Lessons for COVID-19 from past pandemics: Macro-economic consequences of 1968 H3N2 influenza pandemic in United States," Thesis Commons n2kd9, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:thesis:n2kd9
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/n2kd9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    2. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    3. Jappelli, Tullio & Carillo, Mario Francesco, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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