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Seeds of Change: Structural Transformations and Support for the Radical Right

Author

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  • Kerler, Philipp
  • Doyle, David
  • Araújo, Victor

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

The rise of the radical right is often attributed to economic disappointments rooted in structural transformations. However, these explanations frequently fail to extend beyond advanced democracies, where most structural changes differ. To advance the limited understanding of the political effects of structural transformations in countries of the Global South, we study the shift to high-intensity agricultural production in Brazil in the early 2000s. We argue that -- similar to electoral realignment in advanced democracies -- left majoritarian parties (in this case, the Brazilian Workers' Party, PT) losing the support of those left behind by structural change contributed significantly to Jair Bolsonaro's rise to power. At the same time, Bolsonaro's neoliberal appeals around revoking land protection and reducing trade barriers resonated with workers and farmers embedded in increasingly industrialized, export-oriented agriculture. Therefore, Bolsonaro garnered support from the winners and losers of structural transformation simultaneously. Contrary to the protectionist appeals of the radical right in the Global North, our research highlights the distinct role of neoliberal appeals for the success of the radical right in the Global South.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerler, Philipp & Doyle, David & Araújo, Victor, 2026. "Seeds of Change: Structural Transformations and Support for the Radical Right," SocArXiv 4b2e9_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:4b2e9_v1
    DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/4b2e9_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paula Bustos & Gabriel Garber & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2020. "Capital Accumulation and Structural Transformation [“Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 1037-1094.
    2. Kurer, Thomas & Van Staalduinen, Briitta, 2022. "Disappointed Expectations: Downward Mobility and Electoral Change," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1340-1356, November.
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