IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/gcpq8_v1.html

Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles

Author

Listed:
  • Campedelli, Gian Maria
  • Aziani, Alberto
  • Favarin, Serena

Abstract

This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows—from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4\textsuperscript{th} to March 28th 2020—to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Campedelli, Gian Maria & Aziani, Alberto & Favarin, Serena, 2020. "Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles," OSF Preprints gcpq8_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gcpq8_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/gcpq8_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5e7935f40cd06c06ef00430e/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/gcpq8_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leslie, Emily & Wilson, Riley, 2020. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. MacDonald, John M. & Manz, Patrick W. & Alpert, Geoffrey P. & Dunham, Roger G., 2003. "Police use of force: examining the relationship between calls for service and the balance of police force and suspect resistance," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 119-127.
    3. Pridemore, W.A. & Chamlin, M.B. & Andreev, E., 2013. "Reduction in male suicide mortality following the 2006 Russian alcohol policy: An Interrupted time series analysis," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 103(11), pages 2021-2026.
    4. Mohler, G. O. & Short, M. B. & Brantingham, P. J. & Schoenberg, F. P. & Tita, G. E., 2011. "Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(493), pages 100-108.
    5. David K Humphreys & Manuel P Eisner & Douglas J Wiebe, 2013. "Evaluating the Impact of Flexible Alcohol Trading Hours on Violence: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9, February.
    6. Cohn, Ellen G. & Rotton, James, 2003. "Even criminals take a holiday: Instrumental and expressive crimes on major and minor holidays," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 351-360.
    7. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:osf:socarx:cw6a4_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:osf:socarx:t7ne8_v1 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gian Maria Campedelli & Alberto Aziani & Serena Favarin, 2020. "Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles," Papers 2003.11021, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    2. Solmaz Moslehi & Jaai Parasnis & Massimiliano Tani & Josephina Vejayaratnam, 2021. "Assaults during lockdown in New South Wales and Victoria," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 24(2), pages 199-212.
    3. Rocha, Fabiana & Diaz, Maria Dolores Montoya & Pereda, Paula Carvalho & Árabe, Isadora Bousquat & Cavalcanti, Filipe & Lordemus, Samuel & Kreif, Noemi & Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo, 2024. "COVID-19 and violence against women: Current knowledge, gaps, and implications for public policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Moslehi, Solmaz & Parasnis, Jaai & Tani, Massimiliano & Vejayaratnam, Josephina, 2021. "Assaults during Lockdown in NSW and Victoria," IZA Discussion Papers 14573, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Lydia Cheung & Philip Gunby, 2023. "The Initial and Dynamic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Crime in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 23/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    6. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    7. Yichen Shen & Rong Fu & Haruko Noguchi, 2021. "COVID‐19's Lockdown and Crime Victimization: The State of Emergency under the Abe Administration," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 327-348, July.
    8. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2022. "Quantifying domestic violence in times of crisis: An internet search activity‐based measure for the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 498-518, April.
    9. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Fabian Siuda, 2020. "Quantifying Domestic Violence in Times of Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8593, CESifo.
    10. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2021. "Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Diaz, Maria Dolores Montoya & Pereda, Paula & Rocha, Fabiana & Oliveira, Pedro A.C. & Árabe, Isadora Bousquat & Kreif, Noemi & Lordemus, Samuel & Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo, 2025. "Public Policies and Femicides during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from São Paulo, Brazil," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Zheng, Ziwan & Huang, Shuqi & Ning, Yueqiao & Mao, Yuanyuan & Wang, Can, 2025. "Will regular COVID-19 control measures impact the spatial distribution of two-wheeled vehicle theft?: A case study of NH city, China," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Piquero, Alex R. & Jennings, Wesley G. & Jemison, Erin & Kaukinen, Catherine & Knaul, Felicia Marie, 2021. "Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic - Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Nielson, Kyler R. & Zhang, Yan & Ingram, Jason R., 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on police officer activities," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Dillo Justin Ramoshaba & Thembinkosi Peter Singwane, 2023. "Thematic content analysis of lockdown and domestic violence during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(2), pages 370-375, March.
    16. Juan F Domínguez D & Johnny Truong & Jake Burnett & Lata Satyen & Hamed Akhlaghi & Julian Stella & Nick Rushworth & Karen Caeyenberghs, 2022. "Effects of the Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Assault-Related Head Injury in Melbourne: A Retrospective Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Brantingham, P. Jeffrey & Carter, Jeremy & MacDonald, John & Melde, Chris & Mohler, George, 2021. "Is the recent surge in violence in American cities due to contagion?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Fabiana Rocha & Maria Dolores Montoya Diaz & Paula Carvalho Pereda & Isadora Bousquat Arabe & Filipe Cavalcanti & Samuel Lordemus & Noemi Kreif & Rodrigo Moreno-Serra, 2024. "COVID-19 and gender-biased violence: current knowledge, gaps, and implications for public policy," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_14, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    19. Izumi Yokoyama & Reo Takaku, 2024. "How serious was it? The impact of preschool closure on mothers’ psychological distress: evidence from the first COVID-19 outbreak," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 75(3), pages 451-471, July.
    20. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Silverio-Murillo, Adan & de la Miyar, Jose Roberto Balmori, 2021. "The great crime recovery: Crimes against women during, and after, the COVID-19 lockdown in Mexico," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gcpq8_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.