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Is the recent surge in violence in American cities due to contagion?

Author

Listed:
  • Brantingham, P. Jeffrey
  • Carter, Jeremy
  • MacDonald, John
  • Melde, Chris
  • Mohler, George

Abstract

Firearm violence rates have increased in U.S. cities in 2020 and into 2021. We investigate contagious and non-contagious space-time clustering in shooting events in four U.S. cities (Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia) from 2016 to 2020. We estimate the dynamic reproduction number (Rt) of shootings, a measure of contagion, using a Hawkes point process. We also measure concentration over time using a spatial Gini index. We find that the contagious spread of violence increased in 2020 in several, but not all, of the cities we considered. In all four cities, non-contagious (Poisson) events comprised the majority of shootings across time (including 2020). We also find that the spatial location and concentration of shooting hot spots remained stable across all years. We discuss the implications of our findings and directions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Brantingham, P. Jeffrey & Carter, Jeremy & MacDonald, John & Melde, Chris & Mohler, George, 2021. "Is the recent surge in violence in American cities due to contagion?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:76:y:2021:i:c:s0047235221000684
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2021.101848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zeoli, A.M. & Grady, S. & Pizarro, J.M. & Melde, C., 2015. "Modeling the movement of homicide by type to inform public health prevention efforts," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2035-2041.
    2. Mohler, G. O. & Short, M. B. & Brantingham, P. J. & Schoenberg, F. P. & Tita, G. E., 2011. "Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(493), pages 100-108.
    3. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Junhyung Park & Frederic Paik Schoenberg & Andrea L. Bertozzi & P. Jeffrey Brantingham, 2021. "Investigating Clustering and Violence Interruption in Gang-Related Violent Crime Data Using Spatial–Temporal Point Processes With Covariates," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1674-1687, October.
    5. Haberman, Cory P. & Hatten, David & Carter, Jeremy G. & Piza, Eric L., 2021. "The sensitivity of repeat and near repeat analysis to geocoding algorithms," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Veen, Alejandro & Schoenberg, Frederic P., 2008. "Estimation of SpaceTime Branching Process Models in Seismology Using an EMType Algorithm," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 614-624, June.
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