Proximity to Riots: Spatial Exposure and Attitude toward the Police in Africa

Public trust in the police is essential for community safety and effective law enforcement. However, riots—marked by destruction, chaos, and sometimes loss of life—can erode this trust, as police are often seen as either ineffective or threatening. Despite abundant literature, there has been comparatively less emphasis on how exposure to riots—specifically the nature of the riot and the proximity of individuals to such events—affects public trust in the police. This study addresses this gap by introducing a framework incorporating both spatial and temporal dimensions of riot exposure. Drawing on Terror Management Theory (TMT) and Social Identity Theory (SIT) and using geocoded data from the Afrobarometer surveys and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), this study analyzes approximately 15,000 observations across 23 African countries. Findings show that proximity to riots decreases trust in the police. Interestingly, mob violence—compared to violent demonstrations—can increase trust due to heightened vulnerability and anxiety. These results contribute to the literature by reconciling conflicting findings on police-public relations and emphasizing the importance of context-specific policing strategies. Policymakers must focus on localized responses that balance violence suppression with community protection to rebuild trust during civil unrest.