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Independence for Conditional Probability Systems

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  • Jeroen M. Swinkels

Abstract

It has been argues that the natural notion of independence for conditional probability systems is weaker than sequential equilibrium's consistency condition. Kohlberg and Reny(1992) provide an attractive extra condition on a conditioal probability system thatimplies equivalence to consistency. We provide an alternative condition and argue that it is a natural implication of independence. condition also implies equivalence to consistency, and so is equivalent to Kohlberg and Reny's. However, the motivation and formulation of the condition are different, providing an additional viewpoint from which to understand consistency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen M. Swinkels, 1993. "Independence for Conditional Probability Systems," Discussion Papers 1076, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1076
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    File URL: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/papers/1076.pdf
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    1. Kreps, David M & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Sequential Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 863-894, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Pimienta, 2011. "Weakly-Bayesian and Consistent Assessments," Discussion Papers 2012-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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