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Aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy

Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that fluctuation in exchange rates may have strong reallocation effects. Accession to the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, and then to the European Monetary Union em 1999, implied a drastic change in the behavior of Portugal´s exchange rate indexes. The analysis of those indexes is therefore bound ti play an important role in the study of the evolution of the Portuguese economy in the last two decades. However, there are many alternative exchange rate indexes.In this paper, we compute and compare aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy. We find that alternative effective exchange rate indexes are very similar between them. We also find that sector-specific effective exchange rates are strongly correlated with aggregate indexes. Nevertheless, we show that sector-specific exchange rates are more informative than aggregate exchange rates in explaining changes in employment: whereas aggregate indexes are statistically in employment equations, regressions using sector-specific exchange rate indexes show a statistically significant and economically large effect of exchange rates on employment.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2009/NIPE_WP_13_2009.PDF
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 13/2009.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:13/2009
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  1. Paulo Soares Esteves & Carolina Reis, 2006. "Measuring export competitiveness: revisiting the effective exchange rate weights for the euro area countries," Working Papers w200611, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1998. "Employment versus wage adjustment and the U.S. dollar," Staff Reports 56, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 1999. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Working Papers 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & José R. Maria, 2007. "International Trade Patterns over the Last Four Decades: How does Portugal Compare with other Cohesion Countries?," Working Papers w200714, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Jaewoo Lee & Sarma Jayanthi, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 4.
  6. Manuel de Heredia Caldeira Cabral, 2008. "Export Diversification And Technological Improvement: Recent Trends In The Portuguese Economy," GEE Papers 0006, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Apr 2008.
  7. Ekholm, Karolina & Moxnes, Andreas & Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene, 2008. "Manufacturing Restructuring and the Role of Real Exchange Rate Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank.
  9. William H. Branson & James Love, 1988. "U.S. Manufacturing and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Misalignment of Exchange Rates: Effects on Trade and Industry, pages 241-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Herman Z Bennett & Ziga Zarnic, 2009. "International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet: A Heterogeneous-Product Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 919-957, November.
  11. Linda S. Goldberg, 2004. "Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-16.
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