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Review of Economic Impact of CPTPP

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  • Kenichi Kawasaki

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract

In the Asia-Pacific, free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic partnership agreements (EPAs) have been implemented intensively. However, a few major economies have been lagging behind that trend, and recent agreements have not always agreed on 100% tariff removals. This paper presents an overview of the development of EPAs in the Asia-Pacific and investigates quantitatively the relative significance of the impact of the expansion of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the most recent trade database and tariff data. The results of model simulations suggest that the impact of China joining CPTPP would be larger than that of the United States (US) joining, in terms of macroeconomic benefits to the CPTPP economies on average. That said, the macroeconomic effects of the US and/or China joining CPTPP vary in terms of both magnitude and direction among the CPTPP economies. Meanwhile, the impact at the sector level would also vary among those scenarios. The impact estimated by model simulations would also be dependent on the structure of the CGE model used. The impacts of EPAs in alternative scenarios are worth simulating (using the same model version) and comparing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenichi Kawasaki, 2023. "Review of Economic Impact of CPTPP," GRIPS Discussion Papers 23-10, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:23-10
    as

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    File URL: https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/2000008/files/DP23-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin Corong & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2022. "The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base: Version 11," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 7(2), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro, 2022. "Trade fraud and non-tariff measures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Ciuriak , Dan & Xiao, Jingliang & Dadkhah, Ali, 2017. "Quantifying the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 21(4), pages 343-384, December.
    4. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kenichi Kawasaki, 2017. "Emergent Uncertainty in Regional Integration -Economic impacts of alternative RTA scenarios-," GRIPS Discussion Papers 16-27, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia-Pacific; Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model;
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