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Quantifying the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership

Author

Listed:
  • Ciuriak , Dan

    () (Ciuriak Consulting Inc.)

  • Xiao, Jingliang

    () (Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.)

  • Dadkhah, Ali

    () (Ciuriak Consulting Inc.)

Abstract

We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the eleven-party agreement, now renamed as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is a much smaller deal than the twelve-party one, but that some parties do better without the United States in the deal, in particular those in the Western Hemisphere-Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. For the politically relevant medium term, the United States stands to be less well-off outside the TPP than inside. Since provisional deals can be in place for a long time, the results of this study suggest that the eleven parties are better off to implement the CPTPP, leaving aside the controversial governance elements, the implications of which for national interests are unclear and which, in any event, may be substantially affected by parallel bilateral negotiations between individual CPTPP parties and the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciuriak , Dan & Xiao, Jingliang & Dadkhah, Ali, 2017. "Quantifying the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 21(4), pages 343-384, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0334
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.4.334
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.4.334
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    Cited by:

    1. Volman, Lucas, 2018. "The TRIPS Article 31 Tug of War Developing Country Compulsory Licensing of Pharmaceutical Patents and Developed Country Retaliation," LawArXiv 6cxaj, Center for Open Science.
    2. Hoekman, Bernard & Shepherd, Ben, 2019. "Services Trade Policies and Economic Integration: New Evidence for Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 14181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trans-Pacific Partnership; TPP; CPTPP; United States; CGE Modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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