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Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Some "Weighty" Issues

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  • Gordon M. Bodnar
  • M.H. Franco Wong

Abstract

From a sample of 910 U.S. firms over the period 1977 1996, we find that structure of the empirical model has significant impacts on resulting estimates of exchange rate exposures from equity returns. While lengthening the return horizon has minimal impact on exposure estimates, the inclusion of a market portfolio in the specification results in significant changes to the exposure estimates. We further demonstrate that different definitions of the market portfolio result in important differences in the overall distribution of exposure estimates and the interpretations of the sign, size, and significance of many firms' exposures. The source of the exposure differences across market portfolios is due to a strong size-exposure relation for U.S. firms. Surprisingly, this size-exposure relation does not appear to be driven by an underlying correlation between size and foreign cash flow position of the firms. An alternative model specification using matched CRSP capital-based size portfolios as controls for market movements in the exposure model produces firm-level exposures with a stronger relation to foreign cash flows and less of a correlation with firm size.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Some "Weighty" Issues," NBER Working Papers 7497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7497
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    Cited by:

    1. Katalin Bodnár, 2009. "Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey," MNB Occasional Papers 2009/80, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Horst Entorf & Gösta Jamin, 2007. "German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 344-374, August.
    3. Arturo Bris & Yrjö Koskinen & Vicente Pons, 2004. "Corporate Financial Policies and Performance around Currency Crises," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 749-796, October.
    4. Jose Luiz Rossi Junior, 2004. "Foreign Exchange exposure, corporate financial policies and the exchange rate regime: Evidence from Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 163, Econometric Society.
    5. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "A Reexamination of Exchange-Rate Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 396-399, May.
    6. Uluc Aysun & Melanie Guldi, 2008. "Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure," Working papers 2008-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    7. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2010. "Does the currency regime shape unhedged currency exposure?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 760-769, September.
    8. Abdul Rashid, 2010. "The Economic Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence for a Small Open Economy," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 46-58, November.
    9. Yrjo Juhani Koskinen & Arturo Bris, 2001. "Corporate Financial Policies and Performance Prior to Currency Crises," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm187, Yale School of Management.
    10. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2016. "Hedging bank market risk with futures and forwards," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 112-125.
    11. Aoun, Dany & Heshmati, Almas, 2006. "The Causal Relationship between Capital Structure and Cost of Capital: Evidence from ICT Companies Listed at NASDAQ," Ratio Working Papers 87, The Ratio Institute.
    12. Dhasmana, Anubha, 2013. "Operational Currency Mismatch and Firm Level Performance: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 47935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    14. David Parsley Helen Popper, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pegs and Foreign Exchange Exposure in East Asia," International Finance 0211001, EconWPA.
    15. Dhasmana, Anubha, 2013. "Real Effective Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Sector Performance: Evidence from Indian firms," MPRA Paper 47479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The impact of the introduction of the Euro on foreign exchange rate risk exposures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 519-549, October.
    17. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    18. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    19. Ye, Min & Hutson, Elaine & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange exposure: The case of emerging market firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 156-182.
    20. Parsley, David C. & Popper, Helen A., 2006. "Exchange rate pegs and foreign exchange exposure in East and South East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 992-1009, October.
    21. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2002. "Foreign Exchange Exposure and Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia," Working Papers 172002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    22. Jayasinghe, Prabhath & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "New estimates of time-varying currency betas: A trivariate BEKK approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 128-139.

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    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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