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People versus Places: Elite Persistence after the Fall of the Ming

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  • Carol H. Shiue
  • Wolfgang Keller

Abstract

We study how elite power persisted through the Ming–Qing transition in Central China. Using genealogical microdata on married couples and their descendants, linked to measures of local elite influence, we estimate the effects of the Ming collapse (1368–1644) on families (people) and on regions (places). A family line-level treatment and control approach shows that elites experienced an immediate loss of influence, but their descendants recovered and consolidated elite status under the Qing (1644–1911). In contrast, a region-level design indicates that areas more heavily exposed to Ming-collapse destruction suffered persistent adverse outcomes. Evidence on career choice is consistent with a trauma-induced shift toward civil service examination careers, with stronger intergenerational transmission of exam-oriented norms in families more exposed to destruction. The results document adaptive persistence of elite families despite regime change, alongside lasting regional scarring, and highlight the role of cultural transmission in the persistence of elite status.

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  • Carol H. Shiue & Wolfgang Keller, 2025. "People versus Places: Elite Persistence after the Fall of the Ming," NBER Working Papers 34451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34451
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    • N95 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Asia including Middle East

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