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The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco J. Buera
  • Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef
  • Hugo Hopenhayn
  • P. Andres Neumeyer
  • Yongseok Shin

Abstract

What are the effects of a temporary lockdown of the economy? Do firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market frictions propagate and prolong the effects? We answer these questions in a model with financial and labor market frictions. The model makes quantitative predictions about the effect of lockdowns of varying magnitude and duration on output, employment and firm dynamics. We find that the effects are not persistent if (i) workers on temporary layoff can be recalled by their previous employers without having to go through the frictional labor market and (ii) the government provides employment subsidies to firms during the lockdown. However, the effects are heterogeneous and young non-essential firms are disproportionately affected. In addition, if lockdowns lead to more permanent reallocation across industries, the recession becomes more protracted. Although the paper is motivated by the lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic, the framework can be readily applied to large, temporary shocks of different nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco J. Buera & Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef & Hugo Hopenhayn & P. Andres Neumeyer & Yongseok Shin, 2021. "The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 28704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee & Minsung Park & Yongseok Shin, 2021. "Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 367-383, October.
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    5. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    11. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    12. Emin Dinlersoz & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Veronika Penciakova, 2021. "Business Formation: A Tale of Two Recessions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 253-257, May.
    13. Francisco Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 101-117, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaroslaw Janecki, 2021. "Business Uncertainty during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Assessment Based on the Pandemic Fear Index and Economic Surveys," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 561-570.
    2. Brotherhood, Luiz & Jerbashian, Vahagn, 2023. "Firm behavior during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Katafuchi, Yuya, 2021. "Residential land price fluctuations caused by behavioral changes on work-from-home based on COVID-19," MPRA Paper 109310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    5. Maureen Were & Kethi Ngoka, 2022. "An assessment of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya's trade," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-8, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Fernando Cirelli & Mark Gertler, 2022. "Economic Winners Versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession," NBER Working Papers 29713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    9. Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2023. "Informal Labor Markets in Times of Pandemic," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 158-185, January.
    10. Hashemi, Hossein & Rajabi, Reza & Brashear-Alejandro, Thomas G., 2022. "COVID-19 research in management: An updated bibliometric analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 795-810.
    11. Hevia, Constantino & Macera, Manuel & Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés, 2022. "Covid-19 in unequal societies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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