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Temporary Terms of Trade Disturbances, The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper a general equilibrium intertemporal model with optimizing consumers and producers is developed to analyze how the temporary term's of trade disturbances affect the path of real exchange rates and the current account. Changes in the internal terms of trade (due to tariff changes) and to the external terms of trade are considered. The model is completely real, and considers a small open economy that produces and consumes three goods each period. It is shown that, without imposing rigidities or adjustment costs, interesting paths for the equilibrium real exchange rate can be generated. In particular "equilibrium overshooting" can be observed. Precise conditions under which a temporary import tariff will worsen the current account in period 1 are derived. The way in which temporary and permanent external terms of trade shocks will affect the current account are analyzed. Several ways in which the model can be extended are discussed The results obtained from this model have important implications for the design of balance of payments policy and for the analysis of real exchange rate misalignment and overvaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "Temporary Terms of Trade Disturbances, The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 2629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2629
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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    2. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Taxation of International Capital Flows, the Intertemporal Terms of Trade and the Real Price of Oil," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 382-390, September.
    3. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "Trade taxes and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-57.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account," UCLA Economics Working Papers 437, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. J. Peter Neary, 1985. "International Factor Mobility, Minimum Wage Rates, and Factor-Price Equalization: A Synthesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(3), pages 551-570.
    6. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
    7. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Cashin & Christopher J. Kent, 2003. "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks; Persistence Matters," IMF Working Papers 03/143, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2004. "Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 321-340, July.
    3. Aquino, Juan Carlos & Espino, Freddy, 2013. "Terms of Trade and Current Account Fluctuations: a Vector Autoregression Approach," Working Papers 2013-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
    5. Luis N. Lanteri, 2015. "Efecto Harberger-Laursen-Metzler. Evidencia para Argentina (1986-2014)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, December.
    6. repec:eeb:articl:v:3:y:2017:n:3:p:270-305 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. César R. Sobrino, 2011. "Current account, productivity and terms of trade shocks in Norway," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(18), pages 1745-1750, December.
    8. Sainan Huang & Cristina Terra, 2016. "Exchange Rate Populism," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 105-132, March.
    9. Chowdhury, Abdur, 2015. "Terms of trade shocks and private savings in the developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1122-1134.
    10. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 1998. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 98/177, International Monetary Fund.
    11. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2015. "Assessing Asian Equilibrium Exchange Rates as Policy Instruments," Discussion papers 15038, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terms-of-Trade Shocks; The Experience of the Oil-Exporting Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/134, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Zhao, Yan & Guo, Shen & Liu, Xingfei, 2014. "Trading frictions and consumption-output comovement," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 229-240.
    14. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Tariffs and asset market structure: some basic comparative dynamics," Working Papers 1995-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2003. "Intertemporal Substitution and Terms-of-Trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 604-618, September.
    17. Pei-Tha Gan & Nyuk-Ling Lee & Mohammed Yahya Mohammed Hussin & Norimah Rambeli, 2016. "Monetary Policy and External Factors: Empirical Evidence for Association of Southeast Asian Nations 3," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1585-1590.
    18. Chen Fang & Po-Sheng Lin, 2013. "Traded Bond Denominations, Shock Persistence and Current Account Dynamics: Another Look at the Harberger–Laursen–Metzler Effect," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 502-529, October.
    19. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 238-244.
    20. Kam Leong Szeto, 2002. "A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/07, New Zealand Treasury.

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