IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25222.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiji Chen
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978-1997 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998-2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government's financial policies, defined as a set of credit policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of these financial policies throughout the three phases and provide the stylized facts to substantiate our analysis. The stylized facts differ qualitatively across different phases or economies. We argue that the impacts of China’s financial policies work through transmission channels different from those in developed economies and that a regime switch from one economy to another was driven mainly by regime changes in financial policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiji Chen & Tao Zha, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies," NBER Working Papers 25222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25222
    Note: DEV EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25222.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    2. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    3. Kaiji Chen & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    5. Long, Zhiming & Herrera, Rémy, 2016. "Building original series of physical capital stocks for China's economy methodological problems, proposals for solutions and a new database," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-53.
    6. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "Demystifying the Chinese Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(3), pages 259-268, September.
    7. Zheng Liu & Mark M. Spiegel & Jingyi Zhang, 2018. "Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China," Working Paper Series 2018-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Growing and Slowing Down Like China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(5), pages 943-988.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Min Zhang & Yahong Zhang, 2020. "Monetary Stimulus Policy in China: the Bank Credit Channel," Working Papers 2001, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    3. Tianye Lin & Yangyang Ji & Sen Zhang, 2020. "Real Estate, Interest Rates, and Crowding-out Effects," CEMA Working Papers 613, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    4. Waxman, Andrew & Liang, Yuanning & Li, Shanjun & Barwick, Panle Jia & Zhao, Meng, 2020. "Tightening belts to buy a home: Consumption responses to rising housing prices in urban China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Yiming & Tu, Guoqian & Yu, Frank, 2019. "Entrusted loans: A close look at China's shadow banking system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 18-41.
    6. Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2020. "Monetary Stimulus amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Mao, Guangyu & Shen, Yan, 2019. "Bubbles or fundamentals? Modeling provincial house prices in China allowing for cross-sectional dependence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-64.
    8. Gabrieli, Tommaso & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Xu, Yishuang, 2019. "Pair-wise convergence of intra-city house prices in Beijing," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    10. Jia, Pengfei & Lim, King Yoong, 2018. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," MPRA Paper 86576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Franklin Allen & Jun & Chenying Zhang & Mengxin Zhao, 2012. "China's Financial System: Opportunities and Challenges," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 63-143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    13. Mali Chivakul & Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 2015/084, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Hen, 2019. "Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-86.
    16. Mark Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2014. "Co-residence, Life-Cycle Savings and Inter- Generational Support in Urban China," Working Papers 1039, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    17. Yunqiang Xue & Hongzhi Guan & Jonathan Corey & Bing Zhang & Hai Yan & Yan Han & Huanmei Qin, 2017. "Transport Emissions and Energy Consumption Impacts of Private Capital Investment in Public Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(10), pages 1-19, October.
    18. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    19. Carlos Garriga & Yang Tang & Ping Wang, 2014. "Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China," Working Papers 2014-28, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Rajnish Mehra & John Donaldson & Christos Koulovatianos & Jian Li, 2018. "Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China’s One-Child Policy," NCAER Working Papers 112, National Council of Applied Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.