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The Youth Labor Market in the 80s: Determinants of Re-Employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women

  • Lisa M. Lynch

This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of re-employment probabilities for young workers in the U.S. Using data from the new National Longitudinal Survey youth cohort a model is developed to analyze the transition probabilities from nonemployment to employment. The key factors examined include personal characteristics, unemployment income, local demand conditions, and duration dependence. There are significant differences between the labor market experiences of whites and nonwhites, and males and females. High school dropouts have many more difficulties in the labor market than those who remain in school longer and/or receive other types of training. Local demand conditions are a strong determinant of the duration of spells of nonemployment and there appears to be strong evidence of negative duration dependence in re-employment probabilities for both young males and young females.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2021.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2021.

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Date of creation: Sep 1986
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. LXXI, no. 1, pp. 37-45, Feb. 1989.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2021
Note: LS
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  1. Albert Rees & Wayne Gray, 1982. "Family Effects in Youth Employment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 453-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert H. Meyer & David A. Wise, 1982. "High School Preparation and Early Labor Force Experience," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 277-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stephenson, Stanley P, Jr, 1976. "The Economics of Youth Job Search Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 104-11, February.
  5. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August.
  6. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1978. "The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  8. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
  9. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-62, December.
  10. James J. Heckman & Christopher J. Flinn, 1982. "New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David T. Ellwood, 1982. "Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 349-390 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
  13. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-68, September.
  14. Linda S. Leighton & Jacob Mincer, 1979. "Labor Turnover and Youth Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
  16. Michael L. Wachter & Choongsoo Kim, 1979. "Time Series Changes in Youth Joblessness," NBER Working Papers 0384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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