Estimating the Effect of Training on Employment and Unemployment Durations: Evidence From Experimental Data
Using data from a social experiment, we estimate the impact of training on the duration of employment and unemployment spells for AFDC recipients. Although an experimental design eliminates the need to construct a comparison group for this analysis, simple comparisons between the average durations or the transition rates of treatments' and controls' employment and unemployment spells lead to biased estimates of the effects of training. We present and implement several econometric approaches that demonstrate the importance of and correct for these biases. For the training program studied in the paper, we find that it raised employment rates because employment durations increased. In contrast, training did not lead to shorter unemployment spells.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1991|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published as "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training", Econometrica Vol. 64 (1), 1996, pp. 175-205.|
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- Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 1984.
"Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs,"
NBER Working Papers
1489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Burt S. Barnow, 1987. "The Impact of CETA Programs on Earnings: A Review of the Literature," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(2), pages 157-193.
- Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
- Ridder, G, 1986. "An Event History Approach to the Evaluation of Training, Recruitment and Employment Programmes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 109-26, April.
- Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
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