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Estimating Dynamic R&D Demand: An Analysis of Costs and Long-Run Benefits

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  • Bettina Peters
  • Mark J. Roberts
  • Van Anh Vuong
  • Helmut Fryges

Abstract

This paper estimates a dynamic structural model of discrete R&D investment and quantifies its cost and long-run benefit for German manufacturing firms. The dynamic model incorporates linkages between the firm's R&D choice, product and process innovations, and future productivity and profits. The long- run payoff to R&D is measured as the proportional difference in expected firm value generated by the R&D investment. It increases firm value by 6.7 percent for the median firm in high-tech manufacturing industries but only 2.8 percent in low-tech industries. Simulations show that reductions in maintence costs of innovation significantly raise investment rates and productivity while reductions in startup costs have little effect.

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  • Bettina Peters & Mark J. Roberts & Van Anh Vuong & Helmut Fryges, 2013. "Estimating Dynamic R&D Demand: An Analysis of Costs and Long-Run Benefits," NBER Working Papers 19374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19374
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    1. Bartelsman, Eric & Dobbelaere, Sabien & Peters, Bettina, 2013. "Allocation of Human Capital and Innovation at the Frontier: Firm-Level Evidence on Germany and the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 7540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Hans Lööf & Pardis Nabavi & Andreas Stephan, 2017. "A new approach to estimation of the R&D–innovation–productivity relationship," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1-2), pages 121-133, February.
    3. Bettina Peters & Mark J. Roberts & Van Anh Vuong, 2017. "Dynamic R&D choice and the impact of the firm's financial strength," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1-2), pages 134-149, February.
    4. Pere Arqué-Castells & Pierre Mohnen, 2015. "Sunk Costs, Extensive R&D Subsidies and Permanent Inducement Effects," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 458-494, September.
    5. Baumann, Julian & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2016. "The link between R&D, innovation and productivity: Are micro firms different?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1263-1274.
    6. Viroj Jienwatcharamongkhol & Sam Tavassoli, 2015. "Closing the gap: empirical evidence on firms’ innovation, productivity and exports," Chapters, in: Charlie Karlsson & Urban Gråsjö & Sofia Wixe (ed.), Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Global Economy, chapter 12, pages 281-309, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Stephen Roper & Nola Hewitt-Dundas, 2017. "Investigating a neglected part of Schumpeter’s creative army: what drives new-to-the-market innovation in micro-enterprises?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 559-577, October.
    8. Andre Steenkamp & Mark Schaffer & Wayde Flowerday & John Goddard, 2018. "Innovation activity in South Africa: Measuring the returns to R&D," WIDER Working Paper Series 42, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Christopher F Baum & Hans Lööf & Pardis Nabavi, 2019. "Innovation strategies, external knowledge and productivity growth," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 348-367, March.
    10. Julio Diéguez-Soto & María J. Martínez-Romero, 2019. "Family Involvement in Management and Product Innovation: The Mediating Role of R&D Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-24, April.
    11. Anzola-Román, Paula & Bayona-Sáez, Cristina & García-Marco, Teresa, 2018. "Organizational innovation, internal R&D and externally sourced innovation practices: Effects on technological innovation outcomes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 233-247.
    12. Isabel Busom & Beatriz Corchuelo & Ester Martínez-Ros, 2017. "Participation inertia in R&D tax incentive and subsidy programs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 153-177, January.
    13. Sam Tavassoli & Viroj Jienwatcharamongkhol, 2013. "Closing the Gap: An Empirical Evidence on Firm's Innovation, Productivity, and Export," ERSA conference papers ersa13p531, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Isabel Busom & Beatriz Corchuelo & Ester Martínez-Ros, 2015. "Dynamics of firm participation in R&D tax credit and subsidy programs," Working Papers wpdea1503, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    15. Mohnen, Pierre, 2019. "R&D, innovation and productivity," MERIT Working Papers 2019-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Yizhong Wang & Linying Lv & Shanqiao Xia, 2022. "Initial public offering, corporate innovation and total factor productivity: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4695-4726, December.
    17. Andries, Petra & Hünermund, Paul, 2014. "Staging innovation projects: (when) does it pay off?," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-091, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Sara Amoroso, 2014. "The hidden costs of R&D collaboration," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2014-02, Joint Research Centre.
    19. Andre Steenkamp & Mark Schaffer & Wayde Flowerday & John Gabriel Goddard, 2018. "Innovation activity in South Africa: Measuring the returns to R&D," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-42, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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