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Estimating Dynamic R&D Demand: An Analysis of Costs and Long-Run Benefits

  • Bettina Peters
  • Mark J. Roberts
  • Van Anh Vuong
  • Helmut Fryges

This paper estimates a dynamic structural model of discrete R&D investment and quantifies its cost and long-run benefit for German manufacturing firms. The dynamic model incorporates linkages between the firm's R&D choice, product and process innovations, and future productivity and profits. The long- run payoff to R&D is measured as the proportional difference in expected firm value generated by the R&D investment. It increases firm value by 6.7 percent for the median firm in high-tech manufacturing industries but only 2.8 percent in low-tech industries. Simulations show that reductions in maintence costs of innovation significantly raise investment rates and productivity while reductions in startup costs have little effect.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19374.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19374.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19374
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  1. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," MERIT Working Papers 006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Griliches, Zvi, 1992. " The Search for R&D Spillovers," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(0), pages S29-47, Supplemen.
  3. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1989. "Research and Development and Intra-industry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 249-267.
  4. Mark J. Roberts & Van Anh Vuong, 2013. "Empirical Modeling of R&D Demand in a Dynamic Framework," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 185-205.
  5. Bruno Crépon & Emmanuel Duguet & Jacques Mairesse, 1998. "Research, Innovation and Productivity : An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level," Working Papers 98-33, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  6. Jacques Mairesse & Pierre Mohnen, 2010. "Using Innovations Surveys for Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 15857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fred Gault (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14427.
  8. repec:crs:wpaper:9833 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Yi Daniel Xu, 2008. "A Structural Empirical Model of R&D, Firm Heterogeneity , and Industry Evolution," 2008 Meeting Papers 744, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Zvi Griliches, 1979. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 92-116, Spring.
  11. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1991. "Product Demand, Cost of Production, Spillovers, and the Social Rate of Return to R&D," NBER Working Papers 3625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hall, B.H., 2011. "Innovation and productivity," MERIT Working Papers 028, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  13. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  14. Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu & Xiaoyan Fan & Shengxing Zhang, 2012. "The Role of Firm Factors in Demand, Cost, and Export Market Selection for Chinese Footwear Producers," NBER Working Papers 17725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bee Yan Aw & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2009. "R&D Investment, Exporting, and Productivity Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 14670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Daniel Yi Xu & Mark Roberts, 2012. "A Structural Model of Dmand, Cost, and Export Market Selection for Chinese Footwear Producers," 2012 Meeting Papers 294, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-97, November.
  18. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
  19. Crepon, B. & Duguet, E. & Mairesse, J., 1998. "Research Investment, Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 98.15, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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