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Estimating Dynamic R&D Demand: An Analysis of Costs and Long-Run Benefits

  • Bettina Peters
  • Mark J. Roberts
  • Van Anh Vuong
  • Helmut Fryges

Using firm-level data from the German manufacturing sector, we estimate a dynamic, structural model of the firm's decision to invest in R&D and quantify the cost and long-run benefit of this investment. The model incorporates and quantifies linkages between the firm's R&D investment, product and process innovations, and future productivity and profits. The dynamic model provides a natural measure of the long-run payoff to R&D as the difference in expected firm value generated by the R&D investment. For the median productivity firm, investment in R&D raises firm value by 3.0 percent in a group of high-tech industries but only 0.2 percent in low-tech industries. Simulations of the model show that cost subsidies for R&D can significantly affect R&D investment rates and productivity changes in the high-tech industries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19374.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19374
Note: IO PR
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  1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  2. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-97, November.
  3. Zvi Griliches, 1991. "The Search for R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 3768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jacques Mairesse & Pierre Mohnen, 2010. "Using Innovation Surveys for Econometric Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2010s-15, CIRANO.
  5. Bronwyn H. Hall & Jacques Mairesse & Pierre Mohnen, 2009. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," NBER Working Papers 15622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341, 04.
  7. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1991. "Product Demand, Cost of Production, Spillovers, and the Social Rate of Return to R&D," NBER Working Papers 3625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Crepon, B. & Duguet, E. & Mairesse, J., 1998. "Research Investment, Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 98.15, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  9. Zvi Griliches, 1979. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 92-116, Spring.
  10. Daniel Yi Xu & Mark Roberts, 2012. "A Structural Model of Dmand, Cost, and Export Market Selection for Chinese Footwear Producers," 2012 Meeting Papers 294, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Bruno Crepon & Emmanuel Duguet & Jacques Mairesse, 1998. "Research, Innovation And Productivity: An Econometric Analysis At The Firm Level," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 115-158.
  12. Bernstein, Jeffrey I & Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1989. "Research and Development and Intra-industry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 249-67, April.
  13. Bee Yan Aw & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2009. "R&D Investment, Exporting, and Productivity Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 14670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
  15. repec:fth:inseep:9833 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Fred Gault (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement," Books, Edward Elgar, number 14427.
  17. Mark J. Roberts & Van Anh Vuong, 2013. "Empirical Modeling of R&D Demand in a Dynamic Framework," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 185-205.
  18. Hall, Bronwyn H., 2011. "Innovation and productivity," MERIT Working Papers 028, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
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