Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility
Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Harvest Volatility , Steven T. Berry, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. in The Economics of Food Price Volatility , Chavas, Hummels, and Wright. 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Richard E. Just, 2013. "Modeling the Structure of Adaptation in Climate Change Impact Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 244-251.
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