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Monetary Policies in Interdependent Economies with Stochastic Disturbances: A Strategic Approach

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  • Stephen J. Turnovsky
  • Vasco d'Orey

Abstract

This paper analyzes strategic monetary policies using a standard two country stochastic macro model. Three noncooperative equilibria, namely Cournot, Stackelberg, and Consistent Conjectural Variations, are considered.The Pareto Optimal equilibrium, where aggregate joint costs are minimizedis also considered, and all strategic equilibria are compared to the perfectly fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The main conclusions obtained are:(i) Demand shocks are much less problematical than supply disturbances from the viewpoint of macro stabilization; (ii) the gains from cooperation are typically small; (iii) the strategic equilibria all show substantial margins of superiority over the fixed and flexible regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Turnovsky & Vasco d'Orey, 1986. "Monetary Policies in Interdependent Economies with Stochastic Disturbances: A Strategic Approach," NBER Working Papers 1824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Buiter,Willem H. & Marston,Richard C., 1986. "International Economic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521337809.
    2. Nicholas Carlozzi & John B. Taylor, 1983. "International Capital Mobility and the Coordination of Monetary Rules," NBER Working Papers 1242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin K. Perry, 1982. "Oligopoly and Consistent Conjectural Variations," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(1), pages 197-205, Spring.
    4. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Gray, Jo Anna, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-cooperative Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 547-564, October.
    5. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
    6. David Currie & Paul Levine, 1985. "Macroeconomic Policy Design in an Interdependent World," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 228-273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dale W. Henderson & Ning S. Zhu, 1995. "Uncertainty, instrument choice, and the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium: microeconomic and macroeconomic examples," International Finance Discussion Papers 526, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & d'Orey, Vasco, 1989. "The choice of monetary instrument in two interdependent economies under uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 121-133, January.
    3. McNelis, Paul D. & Asilis, Carlos M., 2002. "Macroeconomic policy games and asset-price volatility in the EMS: a linear quadratic control analysis of France, Germany, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Willem H. Buiter, 1988. "Macroeconomic Policy Design in an Interdependent World Economy: An Analysis of Three Contingencies," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 121-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McNelis, Paul D. & Asilis, Carlos M., 1995. "Monetary policy games with broad money targets a linear quadratic control analysis of the U.S. and Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1091-1111.
    6. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 1995. "Monetary policies in interdependent economies: an open economy explanation for base drift and price-level non-trend-stationarities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 275-287, April.
    7. Dale Henderson & Ning Zhu, 1990. "Uncertainty and the choice of instruments in a two-country monetary-policy game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 39-65, February.
    8. Hanif, Muhammad N. & Arby, Muhammad Farooq, 2003. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination," MPRA Paper 10307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 1998. "Two-Country Models of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-284, July.
    10. Hui, George W. L., 1995. "Flexible exchange rates, capital mobility, and monetary instruments of asymmetric economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 149-169.
    11. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1988. "The gains from fiscal cooperation in the two-commodity real trade model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 111-127, August.
    12. Peter Mooslechner & Martin Schuerz, 1999. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Any Lessons for EMU? A Selective Survey of the Literature," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 171-199, September.

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