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Order Flow and the Formation of Dealer Bids: Information Flows and Strategic Behavior in the Government of Canada Securities Auctions

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  • Ali Hortacsu
  • Samita Sareen

Abstract

Is order-flow an important component of private information possessed by traders in government securities markets? Utilizing a detailed data set on Government of Canada securities auctions, we argue that the answer is yes. Direct participation in these auctions is limited to government securities dealers. However, non-dealer customers can also submit bids through dealers. We document patterns of strategic behavior by both sides of the market, dealers and customers, that support the hypothesis that customer bids provide valuable order-flow information to dealers. Dealer bids respond to privately observed customer bids, and dealers observing customer bid can predict the auction cutoff price better. Customers also respond strategically to dealers' use of the information contained in their bids.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Hortacsu & Samita Sareen, 2005. "Order Flow and the Formation of Dealer Bids: Information Flows and Strategic Behavior in the Government of Canada Securities Auctions," NBER Working Papers 11116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ali Hortacsu & Steven L. Puller, 2005. "Understanding Strategic Bidding in Restructured Electricity Markets: A Case Study of ERCOT," NBER Working Papers 11123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
    3. Kjell G. Nyborg, 2004. "Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 545-580.
    4. Kjell G. Nyborg & Kristian Rydqvist & Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2002. "Bidder Behavior in Multiunit Auctions: Evidence from Swedish Treasury Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 394-424, April.
    5. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Discriminatory versus uniform Treasury auctions: Evidence from when-issued transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 63-104, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matoso, Rafael & Rezende, Marcelo, 2014. "Asymmetric information in oil and gas lease auctions with a national company," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 72-82.
    2. Rydqvist, Kristian & Wu, Mark, 2014. "Pre-Auction Inventory and Bidding Behavior?An Analysis of Canadian Treasury Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 10112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alan Mehlenbacher, 2007. "Multiagent System Simulations of Treasury Auctions," Department Discussion Papers 0709, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    4. Rafael Romeu & Lawrence Ausubel, 2005. "Bidder Participation and Information in Currency Auctions," IMF Working Papers 2005/157, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bidisha Chakrabarty, 2007. "Do Dealers Infer Information From Order Flow?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 181-200, June.
    6. Rydqvist, Kristian & Wu, Mark, 2016. "Pre-auction inventory and bidding behavior: Evidence from Canadian Treasury auctions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-102.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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