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Demand functions in Polish Treasury auctions

  • Michał Krawczyk

    ()

    (Warsaw University, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

I introduce a new approach to modeling aggregate bidding functions (demand functions) submitted by participants of share auctions, the one based on (scaled) normal cumulative distribution functions. I provide a simple model illustrating how normal cdf-shaped demand might arise. Then, using new data from the Polish Treasury securities auctions, I show first, that assumptions of the model underlying the normal cdf specification fit the stylized characteristics of the data set and, second, that this approach actually generates a slightly better fit than the traditional approximation by logistic function. I also relate the parameters of the fitted function to economic variables known prior to the auction. This method appears to be a useful tool for early detection of slumps in the performance of a particular auction design.

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Article provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its journal Bank i Kredyt.

Volume (Year): 40 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 31-49

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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:40:y:2009:i:4:p:31-49
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  1. Philippe Février & Raphaële Preget & Michael Visser, 2002. "Econometrics of Share Auctions," Working Papers 2002-09, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  2. Preget, Raphaele & Waelbroeck, Patrick, 2005. "Treasury bill auction procedures: Empirical perspectives from French market bid functions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1054-1072, November.
  3. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Discriminatory versus uniform Treasury auctions: Evidence from when-issued transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 63-104, September.
  4. Daripa, Arupratan, 2001. "A theory of treasury auctions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 743-767, November.
  5. Fleming, Michael J, 2002. "Are Larger Treasury Issues More Liquid? Evidence from Bill Reopenings," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 707-35, August.
  6. Back, Kerry & Zender, Jaime F, 1993. "Auctions of Divisible Goods: On the Rationale for the Treasury Experiment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 733-64.
  7. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1993. " Treasury Auction Bids and the Salomon Squeeze," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1403-19, September.
  8. Cammack, Elizabeth B, 1991. "Evidence on Bidding Strategies and the Information in Treasury Bill Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 100-130, February.
  9. Keloharju, Matti & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2004. "Strategic Behavior and Underpricing in Uniform Price Auctions: Evidence from Finnish Treasury Auctions," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6v17p79w, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  10. Kjell G. Nyborg & Kristian Rydqvist & Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2002. "Bidder Behavior in Multiunit Auctions: Evidence from Swedish Treasury Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 394-424, April.
  11. Michael B. Gordy, 1997. "Hedging Winner's Curse with Multiple Bids: Evidence from the Portuguese Treasury Bill Auction," Microeconomics 9702002, EconWPA.
  12. Yasushi Hamao & Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 1998. "An Analysis of Bidding in the Japanese Government Bond Auctions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 755-772, 04.
  13. Daniel Heller & Yvan Lengwiler, 2001. "Should the Treasury Price Discriminate?. A Procedure for Computing Hypothetical Bid Functions," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 157(3), pages 413-, September.
  14. Wilson, Robert, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 675-89, November.
  15. Umlauf, Steven R., 1993. "An empirical study of the Mexican Treasury bill auction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 313-340, June.
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