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Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates

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  • Rudiger Dornbusch

Abstract

The paper reviews theoretical developments in the field of exchange rate theory and assesses the empirical evidence. Since the empirical evidence does not lend support to the models that have been formulated, a number of reasons for that failure are suggested. These include the argument that the current account has been overrated as an exchange rate determinant and that the role of "news" as yet remains to be tested in an extensive way. Four exchange rate problems are identified as possibly giving justification to exchange market intervention or other policies. They are the possibility of speculative bubbles, the peso problem, the use of irrelevant information and the problem of real appreciation in the case of monetarist stabilization. In each case the exchange rate can deviate from fundamentals, following the asset market rather than the goods market and thus disturbing macroeconomic equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Dornbusch, 1982. "Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-1399, November.
    2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Irina Dubova, 2016. "Modeling Russia’s exchange rate in the long-run," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 499-518, July.
    4. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    5. Jorge Braga de Macedo, 1984. "Trade and Financial Interdependence Under Flexible Exchange Rates: The Pacific Area," NBER Working Papers 1517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Zamira SINAJ, 2017. "The Analysis of the Labor Market in Albania," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, January -.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey Frankel, 1988. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner (ed.), International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World, chapter 7, pages 151-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
    9. Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Mauritius: A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2008/212, International Monetary Fund.

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