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Why Money Announcements Move Interest Rates: An Answer from the Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Charles Engel
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

On a Friday that the Fed announces a money supply greater than had been anticipated, interest rates move up in response. Why? One explanation is that the market perceives the fluctuation in the moneystock as an unintended deviation from the Fed's target growth rate that will be reversed in subsequent periods. The anticipation of this future tightening drives up interest rates today. A second explanation is that the market perceives the increase in the money supply as signalling a higher target growth rate. The expected future inflation rate rises,which is reflected in a higher nominal Interest rate.This paper offers grounds for choosing between the two possible explanations: evidence from the exchange market. Under the first explanation, anticipated future tightening, one would expect the dollar to appreciate against foreign currencies. Under the second explanation,expected inflation, one would expect it to depreciate. We render these claims more concrete by a formal model, a generalization of the Dornbusch overshooting model. Then we use the mark/dollar rate toanswer the question. We find a statistically significant tendency for the dollar to appreciate following positive money supply surprises.This supports the first explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Engel & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1982. "Why Money Announcements Move Interest Rates: An Answer from the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 1049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    2. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    3. Terry Boulter & Celeste Ping Fern Tan, 2000. "The Short Run Impact of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Australian Dollar during 1998," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 082, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1983. "Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility," NBER Working Papers 1121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saiki, Ayako, 2016. "Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?," Working Paper Series 16-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    6. R. Dornbusch, 1982. "Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 309, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    7. Kearney, Adrienne A., 1996. "The effect of changing monetary policy regimes on stock prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 429-447.
    8. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    9. Richard Hartman & John H. Makin, 1982. "Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 0906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    11. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Charles Pigott, 1984. "Indicators of long-term real interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 45-63.
    13. Andreas Fischer, 1989. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Weekly Money Announcements," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(I), pages 43-53, March.
    14. Robert G. King & Bharat Trehan, 1983. "The Implications of an Endogenous Money Supply for Monetary Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 1175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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