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Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates

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  • R. Dornbusch

Abstract

The paper reviews theoretical developments in the field of exchange rate theory and assesses the empirical evidence. Since the empirical evidence does not lend support to the models that have been formulated, a number of reasons for that failure are suggested. These include the argument that the current account has been overrated as an exchange rate determinant and that the role of "news" as yet remains to be tested in an extensive way. Four exchange rate problems are identified as possibly giving justification to exchange market intervention or other policies. They are the possibility of speculative bubbles, the peso problem, the use of irrelevant information and the problem of real appreciation in the case of monetarist stabilization. In each case the exchange rate can deviate from fundamentals, following the asset market rather than the goods market and thus disturbing macroeconomic equilibrium.
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Suggested Citation

  • R. Dornbusch, 1982. "Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 309, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mit:worpap:309
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1987. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Camelia Minoiu & Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Mauritius; A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 08/212, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jorge Braga de Macedo, 1984. "Trade and Financial Interdependence Under Flexible Exchange Rates: The Pacific Area," NBER Working Papers 1517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.

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