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Should Private Pensions Be Indexed?

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  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

The analysis in this paper was motivated by the apparent puzzle that, despite substantial uncertainty about future inflation rates, private pensions are almost universally unindexed. Moreover, although a variable annuity invested in short-term money market instruments provides a good inflation hedge, almost all private pensions provide a fixed annuity. The results of the analysis indicate that the existence of unindexed pensions and fixed annuities is not at all surprising. Even without Social Security, it may be optimal to have a completely unindexed private pension and it is generally not optimal to have a completely indexed pension. The availability of an optimal (or greater than optimal) amount of Social Security generally reduces the desired degree of indexing and, under a variety of conditions, makes it optimal to have no indexing at all in the private pension. Because unexpected changes in the price level do not alter the value of Social Security pensions, the existence of inflation uncertainty makes a Social Security pension optimal when it would not otherwise be and an increase in inflation uncertainty is likely to increase the optimal reliance on Social Security. But despite these conclusions, the analysis shows that including some Social Security in an overall pension program is necessarily optimal only when both money market instruments and Social Security have rates of return that are known with certainty. When the real yield on money market instruments is uncertain, the optimal pension arrangement may be a partially indexed private pension even though Social Security is risk-free and has a return that is higher than the expected rate on the money market instruments. Similarly, when Social Security is risky, the optimal arrangement my be to exclude Social Security and to use a partially indexed private pension. In all cases, an individual who has a low enough degree of risk aversion will prefer no Social Security and a completely unindexed private pension.

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  • Martin Feldstein, 1981. "Should Private Pensions Be Indexed?," NBER Working Papers 0787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0787
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    Cited by:

    1. Zvi Bodie, 1989. "Inflation Insurance," NBER Working Papers 3009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 53-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie & Alan Marcus, 1987. "Pension Plan Integration As Insurance Against Social Security Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 147-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Observations on the Indexation of Old Age Pensions," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 231-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. James E. Pesando, 1984. "Valuing Pensions (Annuities) with Different Types of Inflation Protection in Total Compensation Comparisons," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 569-587, August.
    6. Steven G. Allen & Robert L. Clark & Daniel A. Sumner, 1986. "Postretirement Adjustments of Pension Benefits," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 118-137.
    7. Gustman, A.L. & Mitchell, O.S. & Steinmeier, T.L., 1993. "The Role of Pensions in the Labor Market," Papers 93-07, Cornell - Center for Advanced Human Resource Studies.
    8. Olivia S. Mitchell, "undated". "Developments in Pensions," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-4, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Zvi Bodie, 1989. "Pension Funds and Financial Innovation," NBER Working Papers 3101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Simonovits, András, 2004. "Hogyan óvjuk meg az (amerikai) társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszert?. Magyar szemmel P. A. Diamond-P. R. Orszag Saving Social Security című könyvéről [How to protect the US social-security pensio," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 752-767.

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