Should Private Pensions Be Indexed?
In: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System
The analysis in this paper was motivated by the apparent puzzle that, despite substantial uncertainty about future inflation rates, private pensions are almost universally unindexed. Moreover, although a variable annuity invested in short-term money market instruments provides a good inflation hedge, almost all private pensions provide a fixed annuity. The results of the analysis indicate that the existence of unindexed pensions and fixed annuities is not at all surprising. Even without Social Security, it may be optimal to have a completely unindexed private pension and it is generally not optimal to have a completely indexed pension. The availability of an optimal (or greater than optimal) amount of Social Security generally reduces the desired degree of indexing and, under a variety of conditions, makes it optimal to have no indexing at all in the private pension. Because unexpected changes in the price level do not alter the value of Social Security pensions, the existence of inflation uncertainty makes a Social Security pension optimal when it would not otherwise be and an increase in inflation uncertainty is likely to increase the optimal reliance on Social Security. But despite these conclusions, the analysis shows that including some Social Security in an overall pension program is necessarily optimal only when both money market instruments and Social Security have rates of return that are known with certainty. When the real yield on money market instruments is uncertain, the optimal pension arrangement may be a partially indexed private pension even though Social Security is risk-free and has a return that is higher than the expected rate on the money market instruments. Similarly, when Social Security is risky, the optimal arrangement my be to exclude Social Security and to use a partially indexed private pension. In all cases, an individual who has a low enough degree of risk aversion will prefer no Social Security and a completely unindexed private pensi
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number
6033.||Handle:|| RePEc:nbr:nberch:6033||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesando, James E, 1984.
"Employee Evaluation of Pension Claims and the Impact of Indexing Initiatives,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-17, January.
- James E. Pesando, 1981. "Employee Valuation of Pension Claims and the Impact of Indexing Initiatives," NBER Working Papers 0767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Summers, Lawrence H, 1981.
"Inflation, the Stock Market, and Owner-Occupied Housing,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 429-34, May.
- Lawrence H. Summers, 1980. "Inflation, the Stock Market, and Owner-Occupied Housing," NBER Working Papers 0606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 1983.
"Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market,"
in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
- Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981.
"Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 0517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 1978.
"Inflation and the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
0276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "Inflation and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 839-47, December.
- Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982.
" Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," NBER Working Papers 0693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Martin Feldstein, 1981.
"Private Pensions as Corporate Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
0703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeremy I. Bulow, 1981. "Tax Aspects of Corporate Pension Funding Policy," NBER Working Papers 0724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zvi Bodie, 1980. "Purchasing-Power Annuities: Financial Innovation for Stable Real Retirement Income in an Inflationary Environment," NBER Working Papers 0442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zvi Bodie, 1979. "Inflation Risk and Capital Market Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 0373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patric H. Hendershott & Sheng Cheng Hu, 1979. "Inflation and the Benefits from Owner-Occupied Housing," NBER Working Papers 0383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.