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Yet another estimate of the consequences of the bank levy for the credit market in Poland

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  • Mariusz Kapuściński

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

The effects of the bank levy in Poland on the broadly defined credit market (including on loan rates and volumes) appear to be well documented, with the use of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) method. However, as, for example, Borusyak et al. (2024) note, in a setting with staggered treatment (as in the case of the bank levy in Poland), and different effects of the treatment in time and between cross-sections, the method might provide biased estimates. None of the studies to date used the heterogenous DID method that addresses this drawback. In this research note I use the heterogenous DID method to estimate the consequences of the bank levy. I also discuss other methodological choices. Among other things, I find that the bank levy has lowered deposit rates, raised rates on loans for house purchases, and changed the composition and the level of bank assets. However, I find no longer-term crowding out of credit by government bond securities (while the latter did increase, the former did not increase) or effects on bank profitability. The use of a more advised method did not lead to results in stark contrast with the earlier literature applying methods for causal inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Kapuściński, 2026. "Yet another estimate of the consequences of the bank levy for the credit market in Poland," NBP Working Papers 388, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:388
    Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author. I would like to thank colleagues at the Financial Stability Department of Narodowy Bank Polski for their useful comments. Any errors are mine.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H39 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Other

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