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Yet another estimate of the consequences of the bank levy for the credit market in Poland

Author

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  • Mariusz Kapuściński

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

The effects of the bank levy in Poland on the broadly defined credit market (including on loan rates and volumes) appear to be well documented, with the use of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) method. However, as, for example, Borusyak et al. (2024) note, in a setting with staggered treatment (as in the case of the bank levy in Poland), and different effects of the treatment in time and between cross-sections, the method might provide biased estimates. None of the studies to date used the heterogenous DID method that addresses this drawback. In this research note I use the heterogenous DID method to estimate the consequences of the bank levy. I also discuss other methodological choices. Among other things, I find that the bank levy has lowered deposit rates, raised rates on loans for house purchases, and changed the composition and the level of bank assets. However, I find no longer-term crowding out of credit by government bond securities (while the latter did increase, the former did not increase) or effects on bank profitability. The use of a more advised method did not lead to results in stark contrast with the earlier literature applying methods for causal inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Kapuściński, 2026. "Yet another estimate of the consequences of the bank levy for the credit market in Poland," NBP Working Papers 388, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:388
    Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author. I would like to thank colleagues at the Financial Stability Department of Narodowy Bank Polski for their useful comments. Any errors are mine.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2022. "The consequences of the bank levy in Poland," NBP Working Papers 346, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel & Jann Spiess, 2024. "Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3253-3285.
    3. Piti Disyatat, 2008. "Monetary policy implementation: Misconceptions and their consequences," BIS Working Papers 269, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, June.
    5. Alexander Rodnyansky & Olivier M. Darmouni, 2017. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Bank Lending Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3858-3887.
    6. Borsuk, Marcin & Kowalewski, Oskar & Qi, Jianping, 2023. "The dark side of bank taxes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, December.
    8. Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2025. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference‐in‐Differences," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 741-758, November.
    9. Borsuk, Marcin & Przeworska, Joanna & Saunders, Anthony & Serwa, Dobromił, 2024. "The macroeconomic costs of the bank tax," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Kapuściński, Mariusz, 2025. "Bank levies, the money market and monetary policy operations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H39 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Other

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