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Assessing the role of ageing, feminising and better-educated workforces on TFP growth

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Ariu

    () (McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, USA and FNRS & IRES, UClouvain, Belgium)

  • Vincent Vandenberghe

    () (Economics Department, IRES, Economics School of Louvain (ESL), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), 3 place Montesquieu, B-1348 Belgium)

Abstract

This paper uses Belgian firm-level data, covering the 1998-2006 period, to assess the impact on TFP growth of key labour force structural changes: ageing, feminisation and rise of educational attainment. Based on a Hellerstein-Neumark analytical framework, our work shows that an ageing workforce negatively affects TFP growth, whereas its feminisation and its tendency to be better-educated do not have any independent positive or negative impact. Therefore, the TFP slowdown induced by the ageing process is neither gender biased nor counterbalanced by the rising educational attainment of the workforce. These findings are robust to many additional treatments applied to the data, and controlling for the different sources of endogeneity. Quantitatively, ageing workforces account for a -4.5 percentage points loss in terms of cumulative TFP growth over the 1991-2013 period; and the projections suggest that this number could reach -7 percentage points by the mid-2020s. This pattern is not so much dictated by Belgium’s demography, but rather its commitment to attain an overall employment rate of 75% by 2020. The latter almost inevitably implies almost doubling the current employment rate of individuals aged 55-64.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Ariu & Vincent Vandenberghe, 2014. "Assessing the role of ageing, feminising and better-educated workforces on TFP growth," Working Paper Research 265, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201410-265
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss, 2014. "Main lessons of the NBB’s 2014 conference “Total factor productivity : measurement, determinants and effects”," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 63-76, December.
    2. repec:nbb:ecrart:y:2014:m:december:i:iii:p:69-82 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TFP growth; Ageing; Feminisation; Rising Educational Attainment; Firm-Level Analysis;

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