IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nan/wpaper/1505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the integration of China's main stock exchange with the international financial market

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenxi Chen

    (Faculty of Economics, Business and Social Sciences, Christian-Albrechts University, Olshausenstrasse 40, 24118 Kiel, Germany)

  • Jan F. Kiviet

    (Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, PO Box 15867, 1001 NJ Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Weihong Huang

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332.)

Abstract

Extending published bivariate analyses on the revenues at the stock markets of New York and Shanghai by a tri-variate analysis, which also includes the Hong Kong stock market, we demonstrate that bivariate inferences on co-movement are highly fragile. In fact, rather common opinions like "China's stock market has become more and more integrated to the world market in the past twenty years" can easily be refuted. We do so also by demonstrating that the statistical findings from various earlier analyses are internally inconsistent. A rather straight-forward analysis based on standard and partial correlations over a running window, which does not pretend to unveil causality, indicates that although the Hong Kong market shows substantial though varying co-movement with both the New York and the Shanghai markets, an apparent systematically intensifying direct link between New York and Shanghai has not emerged yet.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenxi Chen & Jan F. Kiviet & Weihong Huang, 2015. "On the integration of China's main stock exchange with the international financial market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1505, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2015/2015-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:lan:wpaper:2594 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dror Y Kenett & Matthias Raddant & Thomas Lux & Eshel Ben-Jacob, 2012. "Evolvement of Uniformity and Volatility in the Stressed Global Financial Village," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8, February.
    3. Y. Shapira & D. Y. Kenett & E. Ben-Jacob, 2009. "The Index cohesive effect on stock market correlations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 72(4), pages 657-669, December.
    4. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
    5. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei & Hu, John Wei-Shan, 2000. "Causality and cointegration of stock markets among the United States, Japan and the South China Growth Triangle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 281-297.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:2452 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:2371 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chow, Gregory C. & Liu, Changjiang & Niu, Linlin, 2011. "Co-movements of Shanghai and New York stock prices by time-varying regressions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-583.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    10. Shenqiu Zhang & Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2009. "Linkages between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(23), pages 1847-1857.
    11. Hong Li, 2007. "International linkages of the Chinese stock exchanges: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 285-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2018. "A Critical Appraisal of Studies Analyzing Co-movement of International Stock Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 151-196, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhenxi CHEN & Jan F. KIVIET & Weihong Huang, 2014. "Hong Kong: A Bridge Connecting Mainland China and the International Market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1406, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    2. Kiviet Jan F., 2017. "Discriminating between (in)valid External Instruments and (in)valid Exclusion Restrictions," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, January.
    3. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2016. "A critical appraisal of studies analyzing co-movement of international stock markets with a focus on East-Asian indices," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1606, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    4. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2018. "A Critical Appraisal of Studies Analyzing Co-movement of International Stock Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 151-196, May.
    5. Sunil S. Poshakwale & Anandadeep Mandal, 2017. "Sources of time varying return comovements during different economic regimes: evidence from the emerging Indian equity market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 859-892, May.
    6. Wu, Weiou & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A., 2017. "Modelling asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1137-1149.
    7. Babecký, Jan & Komárek, Lubos & Komárková, Zlatuse, 2012. "Integration of Chinese and Russian stock markets with world markets : National and sectoral Perspectives," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2018. "China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1140-1164.
    9. Thomas C. Chiang & Lanjun Lao & Qingfeng Xue, 2016. "Comovements between Chinese and global stock markets: evidence from aggregate and sectoral data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1003-1042, November.
    10. Luke Lin & Wen-Yuan Lin, 2018. "Does the major market influence transfer? Alternative effect on Asian stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1169-1200, May.
    11. Dror Y. Kenett & Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2015. "Partial correlation analysis: applications for financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 569-578, April.
    12. Jianrong Wei & Jiping Huang, 2012. "An Exotic Long-Term Pattern in Stock Price Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-5, December.
    13. David Vidal-Tomás & Simone Alfarano, 2020. "An agent-based early warning indicator for financial market instability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 49-87, January.
    14. Dror Y. Kenett & Xuqing Huang & Irena Vodenska & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2014. "Partial correlation analysis: Applications for financial markets," Papers 1402.1405, arXiv.org.
    15. Sowmya Dhanaraj & Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy & Suresh Babu M, 2013. "Dynamic interdependence between US and Asian markets: an empirical study," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 220-237, April.
    16. Dorota Witkowska & Krzysztof Kompa & Aleksandra Matuszewska-Janica, 2012. "Analysis of Linkages between Central and Eastern European Capital Markets," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 19-34.
    17. Irena Vodenska & Alexander P. Becker & Di Zhou & Dror Y. Kenett & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, May.
    18. repec:wyi:journl:002146 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Michel Beine & Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Helene Raymond, 2008. "International nonlinear causality between stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 663-686.
    20. M. Fatih Oztek & Nadir Ocal, 2012. "Integration of China Stock Markets with International Stock Markets: An application of Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation with Double Transition Functions," ERC Working Papers 1209, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
    21. Gupta, Rakesh & Guidi, Francesco, 2012. "Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Co-movement; Globalization; Specification analysis; Stock markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dentusg.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Magdalene Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dentusg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.