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Co-movements of Shanghai and New York Stock Prices by Time-varying Regressions

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  • Gregory C Chow
  • Changjiang Liu
  • Linlin Niu

Abstract

We use time-varying regression to model the relationship between returns in the Shanghai and New York stock markets, with possible inclusion of lagged returns. The parameters of the regressions reveal that the effect of current stock return of New York on Shanghai steadily increases after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and turns significantly and persistently positive after 2002 when China entered WTO. The effect of current return of Shanghai on New York also becomes significantly positive and increasing after 2002. The upward trend has been interrupted during the recent global financial crisis, but reaches the level of about 0.4-0.5 in 2010 for both markets. Our results show that China’s stock market has become more and more integrated to the world market in the past twenty years with interruptions occurring during the recent global economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory C Chow & Changjiang Liu & Linlin Niu, 2013. "Co-movements of Shanghai and New York Stock Prices by Time-varying Regressions," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002029
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    Cited by:

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    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Bo Tang, 2015. "Exchange Rate Changes and Stock Returns in China: A Markov Switching SVAR Approach," Working Papers 2015024, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    3. Hong Cheng & Yunqing Wang & Yihong Wang & Tinggan Yang, 2022. "Inferring Causal Interactions in Financial Markets Using Conditional Granger Causality Based on Quantile Regression," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 719-748, February.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Babecký, Jan & Komárek, Lubos & Komárková, Zlatuse, 2012. "Integration of Chinese and Russian stock markets with world markets : National and sectoral Perspectives," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Babecký, Jan & Komárek, Lubos & Komárková, Zlatuse, 2012. "Integration of Chinese and Russian stock markets with world markets: National and sectoral Perspectives," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Yifan Chen & Limin Yu & Jianhua Gang, 2021. "Half-day trading and spillovers," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Zhenxi CHEN & Jan F. KIVIET & Weihong Huang, 2014. "Hong Kong: A Bridge Connecting Mainland China and the International Market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1406, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    9. Kiviet Jan F., 2017. "Discriminating between (in)valid External Instruments and (in)valid Exclusion Restrictions," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, January.
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    11. Zhenxi Chen & Jan F. Kiviet & Weihong Huang, 2015. "On the integration of China's main stock exchange with the international financial market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1505, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    12. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Globalization; Rate of Return; Stock Markets; Time-varying parameter regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance

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