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Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888-1905

  • Andrew Coleman

    ()

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Registered author(s):

    This paper examines the uncovered interest parity hypothesis using the dollar-sterling exchange rate during the gold standard era. This period is interesting because the exchange rate was seasonal, because transactions costs were high, and because occasions when uncovered interest rate speculation did not occur can be identified. The paper shows UIP speculation frequently did not occur, that speculation occurred more in response to expected exchange rate changes than interest rate differentials, and that profitability varied systematically with interest rate differentials. The estimated UIP equations are substantially improved by distinguishing occasions when sterling was borrowed not lent.

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    File URL: http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/10_02.pdf
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    Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 10_02.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:10_02
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    Web page: http://www.motu.org.nz
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    1. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521038218 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
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