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Dodging Economic Isolation: The Asymmetric Impact Of Western Sanctions On Belarus

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  • David Zehner

Abstract

This paper assesses the economic consequences of targeted Western sanctions on Belarus following the 2020 post-election crackdown. This study analyses aggregate exports alongside a specific focus on potash, a vital state revenue engine where Belarus commands 20% of global production, making it a sensitive global commodity. Utilising a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and complemented by Synthetic Control Methods (SCM), the study evaluates bilateral trade flows from 2015 to 2021. The results reveal a structural asymmetry, where the initial economic shock caused a 48.5% contraction in Belarus’s aggregate exports relative to a post-Soviet control group, and potash exports remained insulated, yielding an insignificant coefficient of 0.000 relative to global peers. This divergence suggests that while comprehensive measures disrupted aggregate trade, targeted sectoral sanctions faced enforcement limits. This study contributes to literature on sanction circumvention in integrated regional markets.

Suggested Citation

  • David Zehner, 2026. "Dodging Economic Isolation: The Asymmetric Impact Of Western Sanctions On Belarus," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 152, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    • Handle: RePEc:mtk:febawb:152
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