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Staggered Difference-in-Differences in Gravity Settings: Revisiting the Effects of Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Arne Nagengast

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Yoto Yotov

    (Drexel University)

Abstract

We nest an extended two-way fixed effect (ETWFE) estimator for staggered difference-in-differences within the structural gravity model. To test the ETWFE, we estimate the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs). The results suggest that RTA estimates in the current gravity literature may be biased downward (by more than 50% in our sample). Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of our main findings and demonstrate the applicability of our methods in different settings. We expect the ETWFE methods to have significant implications for the estimates of other policy variables in the trade literature and for gravity regressions on migration and FDI flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Arne Nagengast & Yoto Yotov, 2023. "Staggered Difference-in-Differences in Gravity Settings: Revisiting the Effects of Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-6, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2023_006
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    Cited by:

    1. Arne J. Nagengast & Fernando Rios‐Avila & Yoto V. Yotov, 2026. "The European single market and intra‐EU trade: an assessment with heterogeneity‐robust difference‐in‐differences methods," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 93(369), pages 298-331, January.
    2. Carril-Caccia, Federico, 2025. "The impact of economic sanctions on bilateral mergers and acquisitions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Chang,Kuo-I & Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2025. "Subsidies for Reshoring: Evidence from Taiwan," IDE Discussion Papers 974, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Hendrik Mahlkow & Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz, 2025. "Diversifizieren, nicht reagieren: Europas neuer Weg in der Handelspolitik," WIFO Research Briefs 5, WIFO.
    5. Konstantin Sommer, 2024. "The Chinese waste import ban and the emergence of waste havens within Europe," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-053/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Ridwan Ah Sheikh & Sunil Kanwar, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of TRIPS on IPR-intensive Export Flows: Evidence from Staggered Difference-in-Differences," Working papers 351, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2025. "The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Peter Egger & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Analyzing the effects of economic sanctions: Recent theory, data, and quantification," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 1-11, February.
    9. Ninon Moreau-Kastler, 2025. "Proportional Treatment Effects in Staggered Settings: An Approach for Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood," Working Papers 031, EU Tax Observatory.
    10. Elisabeth Christen & Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Joschka Wanner & Martin Mosler & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2025. "Freihandel, anyone?. Effekte handelspolitischer Szenarien zwischen der Schweiz und den USA," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57956826, June.
    11. Cipollina, Maria & Dal Bianco, Silvia, 2025. "Trade sanctions and global value chains: The role of financial development and capital openness in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Lukas J. Hornung & Nico Stöckmann, 2024. "Protectionism in Disguise? EU Anti-Dumping Measures Targeting PRC Iron and Steel Products," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-31, December.
    13. Bruno, Randolph Luca & Cipollina, Maria & Dal Bianco, Silvia, 2025. "Trade sanctions and Global Value Chains: A China–South Africa perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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