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The Eurasian roundabout: Trade flows into Russia through the Caucasus and Central Asia

Author

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  • Chupilkin, Maxim
  • Javorcik, Beata
  • Plekhanov, Alexander

Abstract

This paper documents two strategies used to circumvent trade sanctions imposed on Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The first involves transshipment through countries that do not participate in the sanctions regime. The second—simple yet largely undocumented—entails goods nominally shipped to neighbouring countries via Russia but failing to reach their declared final destination. Focusing on Armenia, Kazakhstan, and the Kyrgyz Republic, we show that during 2022–23 the two strategies offset roughly one third of the decline in European exports to Russia prompted by product-specific trade sanctions. We further find that sanctions led to only a modest increase in the unit values of products exported to Russia by both sanctioning and non-sanctioning economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chupilkin, Maxim & Javorcik, Beata & Plekhanov, Alexander, 2026. "The Eurasian roundabout: Trade flows into Russia through the Caucasus and Central Asia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:187:y:2026:i:c:s001429212600084x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105340
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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