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Investigating the macroeconomic determinants of household debt in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Anelisa Nomatye

    (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)

  • Andrew Phiri

    (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)

Abstract

Following the 2007 global financial crisis, the understanding of the relationship between debt and other economic indicators has become crucial for policymakers worldwide. In this study, we investigated the macroeconomic determinants of household debt for the South African economy using macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, consumption, interest rates, inflation, housing prices and domestic investments. Our mode of empirical investigation is the quantile regression approach which is applied to quarterly time series data spanning from 2002:q1 to 2016:q4. Our empirical results imply that inflation and consumption are insignificantly related with household debt; GDP growth and house prices are only related with household debt at moderate to high levels of distributions whereas interest rates and investment are related with household debt across all quantile distributions. All-in-all, these empirical findings bear important implications for South African policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Anelisa Nomatye & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Investigating the macroeconomic determinants of household debt in South Africa," Working Papers 1719, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Dec 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnd:wpaper:1719
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    Cited by:

    1. Enache Calcedonia, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Household Indebtedness in Romania: An Econometric Approach," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 11(1-2), pages 102-117, December.
    2. Monika Gupta & Shubhi Bansal, 2020. "Covid-19 Disruption of Middle-Class Monthly Household Income and Budget," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 10-17.
    3. Sheunesu Zhou & Olivier Niyitegeka, 2023. "On the Dynamic Relationship between Household Debt and Income Inequality in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household debt; Quantile regressions; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

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