Computable Bounds for Extreme Event Probabilities in Stochastic Economic Models
The paper introduces a multiplicative drift condition for evaluating stochastic economic models. The drift condition is shown to permit computation of quantitative bounds for extreme event probabilities in terms of the model primitives. By way of illustration, the technique is applied to a simple threshold autoregression model of exchange rates.
|Date of creation:||2005|
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- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993.
"Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
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- Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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