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Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR


  • Forbes, Kristin J.
  • Abeysinghe, Tilak


This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification strategy that significantly reduces the number of unknowns and allows cross-country relationships to vary over time. Then it uses this model to examine the impact of shocks to 11 Asian countries, the U.S. and the rest of the OECD. The model produces reasonably good short-term forecasts. Impulse-response matrices suggest that these multiplier effects are large and significant and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that are relatively minor bilateral trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, Kristin J. & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2002. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR," Working papers 4242-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:669

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    2. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    6. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
    7. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Rahul Sen & Reza Y. Siregar, 2002. "Hong Kong, Singapore and the East Asian Crisis: How Important were Trade Spillovers?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 503-537, April.
    2. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    3. Enrico Tanuwidjaja & Choy Keen Meng, 2005. "Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Small Scale Macroeconomic Model of Indonesia," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0514, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    4. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.

    More about this item


    Trade linkages; Output-Multiplier Effects; VAR;


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