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Debt Sustainability and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey

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  • Nur Keyder

    (Department of Economics, METU)

Abstract

The paper attempts to estimate the primary surplus requirement for debt sustainability in Turkey, taking into consideration not only the operational deficit and seigniorage factors but also the exchange rate factor. In estimations, a modified version of the approach suggested by the World Bank (2000:16-18; 121-124) is used (see Appendix A for the derivation of the original formula, which is slightly different from the one in the document mentioned). The analysis is carried out in two steps. First the real interest rate is estimated and then the results are plugged into the primary surplus equation. The exchange rate factor is taken up during the estimation of the real interest rate in TL, on FX-related debt. The debt sustainability issue is evaluated by comparing the estimated primary surplus-to-GNP ratios required for debt sustainability, with the targeted primary surplus ratio, taking into consideration the real interest rate and composition of the existing debt stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Nur Keyder, 2003. "Debt Sustainability and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0306, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jun 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:0306
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    File URL: http://erc.metu.edu.tr/en/system/files/menu/series03/0306.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 2000. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: an Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2003. "Debt relief and fiscal sustainability," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(1), pages 38-65, March.
    4. Morris Goldstein, 2003. "Debt Sustainability, Brazil, and the IMF," Working Paper Series WP03-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic & Julia Wörz & Vasily Astrov, 2005. "Turkey:Macroeconomic Vulnerability,Competitiveness and the Labour Market," Working Papers 2005/5, Turkish Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; debt; sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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