IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/max/cprwps/27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation and Capital Market Transmissions in the Presence of Symmetric Demographic Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun

Abstract

This paper examines the transition effects of population aging in more developed regions that is also expected to occur in developing regions in the near future. We address these effects by exploring the influences of internationally mobile capital and a politically responsive fiscal policy in a two-country overlapping generations model. Our results show that the combination of capital mobility and endogenous fiscal policy play an important role in how economies respond to population aging. Capital mobility has consumption smoothing effects but endogenous fiscal policy is the key factor in creating asymmetries between countries. The interaction of the two may even account for a change in the pattern, in addition to a change in the size, of the effects of population aging on economic growth and welfare when compared to closed economy and exogenous fiscal policy models. We find that even when the demographic shock in the two regions is symmetric, reaction to this shock depends on the timing of the shock. Overall, the late, developing country demographic shock produces relatively more favorable economic outcomes worldwide. Finally, our analysis of the timing of developing country aging indicates that an early aging scenario is more beneficial for both regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2000. "Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation and Capital Market Transmissions in the Presence of Symmetric Demographic Shocks," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 27, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/uploadedFiles/cpr/publications/working_papers2/wp27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Hongming & Kao, Chihwa & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Copula-based tests for cross-sectional independence in panel models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, pages 224-228.
    2. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
    3. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-797, August.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1993. "Demographics, Political Power and Economic Growth," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(Supplemen), pages 349-365.
    5. James M. Poterba, 1997. "Demographic structure and the political economy of public education," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
    6. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    7. Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 1996. "Aging and political decision making on public pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, pages 141-158.
    8. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    9. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mary E. Lovely & Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2000. "Generational Conflict, Human Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 28, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    10. Matthew E. Kahn, 2002. "Demographic change and the demand for environmental regulation," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 45-62.
    11. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    12. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Margaret Austin) or (Candi Patterson) or (Katrina Wingle). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cpsyrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.