IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/202507.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Highway to Rail? Germany’s Public Transport Ticket Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Theresa Daniel

    (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Department of Economics)

  • Maximilian Maurice Gail

    (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Department of Economics)

  • Phil-Adrian Klotz

    (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Germany’s nationwide 9-Euro-Ticket, a temporary almost fare-free transport ticket, on highway passenger traffic. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find a significant reduction of approximately 4.5%, primarily driven by decreased weekend traffic. Event study results also indicate considerable heterogeneity across time, federal states, and road types. A similar but more persistent effect is observed for the Deutschlandticket, the permanent successor to the 9-Euro-Ticket. However, our findings suggest that neither ticket has resulted in a lasting shift from private cars to public transport, especially among commuters. Hence, the overall efficiency of this measure remains uncertain, particularly in view of the high direct costs and the necessary investments required to improve Germany’s rail infrastructure in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Theresa Daniel & Maximilian Maurice Gail & Phil-Adrian Klotz, 2025. "From Highway to Rail? Germany’s Public Transport Ticket Experiment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202507, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2025-papers/07-2025.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohring, Herbert, 1972. "Optimization and Scale Economies in Urban Bus Transportation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 591-604, September.
    2. Ian W. H. Parry & Kenneth A. Small, 2009. "Should Urban Transit Subsidies Be Reduced?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 700-724, June.
    3. Leonardo J. Basso & Hugo E. Silva, 2014. "Efficiency and Substitutability of Transit Subsidies and Other Urban Transport Policies," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-33, November.
    4. Dovern, Jonas & Frank, Johannes & Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena Sophia & Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    7. Niklas Gohl & Philipp Schrauth, 2022. "Ticket to Paradise? The Effect of a Public Transport Subsidy on Air Quality," CEPA Discussion Papers 50, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Busch-Geertsema, Annika & Lanzendorf, Martin & Klinner, Nora, 2021. "Making public transport irresistible? The introduction of a free public transport ticket for state employees and its effects on mode use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 249-261.
    9. Mario Liebensteiner & Jakob Losert & Sarah Necker & Florian Neumeier & Jörg Paetzold & Sebastian Wichert, 2024. "Almost Fare Free: Impact of a Cheap Public Transport Ticket on Mobility Patterns and Infrastructure Quality," CESifo Working Paper Series 11229, CESifo.
    10. Drolsbach, Chiara Patricia & Gail, Maximilian Maurice & Klotz, Phil-Adrian, 2023. "Pass-through of Temporary Fuel Tax Reductions: Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277655, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Guajardo Ortega, Maria Fernanda & Link, Heike, 2025. "Mode choice inertia and shock: Three months of almost fare-free public transport in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    12. Satoshi Fujii & Ryuichi Kitamura, 2003. "What does a one-month free bus ticket do to habitual drivers? An experimental analysis of habit and attitude change," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 81-95, February.
    13. Drolsbach, Chiara Patricia & Gail, Maximilian Maurice & Klotz, Phil-Adrian, 2023. "Pass-through of temporary fuel tax reductions: Evidence from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klotz, Phil-Adrian & Daniel, Theresa & Gail, Maximilian Maurice, 2024. "The Impact of Public Transport Subsidies on Highway Traffic: Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302401, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Guajardo Ortega, Maria Fernanda & Link, Heike, 2025. "Mode choice inertia and shock: Three months of almost fare-free public transport in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Vieira, Renato. S. & Pereira, Rafael H. M. & Emanuel, Lucas & Alves, Pedro Jorge, 2025. "The Effects of Fare-Free Transit on the Travel Behavior of Older Adults," OSF Preprints pywm7_v2, Center for Open Science.
    4. Börjesson, Maria & Fung, Chau Man & Proost, Stef & Yan, Zifei, 2018. "Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around? Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 326-346.
    5. Bull, Owen & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & Silva, Hugo E., 2021. "The impact of fare-free public transport on travel behavior: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Vigren, Andreas & Pyddoke, Roger, 2020. "The impact on bus ridership of passenger incentive contracts in public transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 144-159.
    7. Tirachini, Alejandro & Proost, Stef, 2021. "Transport taxes and subsidies in developing countries: The effect of income inequality aversion," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    8. Davis, Lucas W., 2021. "Estimating the price elasticity of demand for subways: Evidence from Mexico," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Hörcher, Daniel & De Borger, Bruno & Graham, Daniel J., 2023. "Subsidised transport services in a fiscal federation: Why local governments may be against decentralised service provision," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Börjesson, Maria & Fung, Chau Man & Proost, Stef & Yan, Zifei, 2017. "Cycling tolls and optimal number of bus stops: the importance of congestion and crowding," Working papers in Transport Economics 2017:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    11. Perrier, Quentin & Geoffron, Patrice, 2024. "The benefits of elastic fuel taxation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    12. Vieira, Renato. S. & Pereira, Rafael H. M. & Emanuel, Lucas & Alves, Pedro Jorge, 2025. "The Effects of Fare-Free Transit on the Travel Behavior of Older Adults," OSF Preprints pywm7_v1, Center for Open Science.
    13. Asplund, Disa & Pyddoke, Roger, 2020. "Optimal fares and frequencies for bus services in a small city," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Rubensson, Isak, 2020. "Distributional effects of public transport subsidies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Huber, Martin & Meier, Jonas & Wallimann, Hannes, 2022. "Business analytics meets artificial intelligence: Assessing the demand effects of discounts on Swiss train tickets," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 22-39.
    16. De Borger, Bruno & Proost, Stef, 2022. "Covid-19 and optimal urban transport policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 20-42.
    17. Xuto, Praj & Anderson, Richard J. & Graham, Daniel J. & Hörcher, Daniel, 2021. "Optimal infrastructure reinvestment in urban rail systems: A dynamic supply optimisation approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 251-268.
    18. Guillaume Monchambert & Stef Proost, 2019. "How Efficient are Intercity Railway Prices and Frequencies in Europe?: Comparing a Corridor in Belgium and in France," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 53(4), pages 323-32-347.
    19. Kahl, Mats Petter, 2024. "Was the German fuel discount passed on to consumers?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Pavón, Nicolás & Rizzi, Luis Ignacio, 2019. "Road infrastructure and public bus transport service provision under different funding schemes: A simulation analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 89-105.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.