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An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles in a New Keynesian Model with Inventories


  • Marcel Förster

    () (University of Giessen)


This paper introduces inventories in an otherwise standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Firms accumulate inventories to facilitate sales, but face a cost of doing so in terms of costly storage of intermediate goods. Based on U.S. data we estimate the parameters of our model using Bayesian methods. The results show that accounting for inventory dynamics has a significant impact on parameter estimates and the following analyses. We find that inventories enter the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an additional and significant driving variable and make the inflation process less backward-looking. Moreover, impulse responses can change in terms of magnitude and persistence. The variance decompositionreveals substantial changes regarding the driving forces of inflation and the nominal interest rate when we consider inventory holding.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Förster, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles in a New Keynesian Model with Inventories," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201413, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201413

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    2. Leonardo Auernheimer & Danilo Trupkin, 2014. "The Role of Inventories and Capacity Utilization as Shock Absorbers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 70-85, January.
    3. Yongseung Jung & Tack Yun, 2005. "Monetary policy shocks, inventory dynamics, and price-setting behavior," Working Paper Series 2006-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
    5. Eric French, 2004. "The Labor Supply Response to (Mismeasured but) Predictable Wage Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 602-613, May.
    6. Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1719-1748.
    7. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    9. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
    10. Lubik, Thomas A. & Teo, Wing Leong, 2012. "Inventories, inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 327-346.
    11. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Frank Smets, 2008. "Differences in Interest Rate Policy at the ECB and the Fed: An Investigation with a Medium-Scale DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 505-521, March.
    12. Chang, Yongsung & Hornstein, Andreas & Sarte, Pierre-Daniel, 2009. "On the employment effects of productivity shocks: The role of inventories, demand elasticity, and sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 328-343, April.
    13. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    More about this item


    Inventories; Bayesian Estimation; DSGE Model; Business Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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