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Detecting Hidden Violence: The Spatial Distribution of Excess Mortality in Rwanda

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  • Marijke verpoorten

Abstract

Rwanda experienced several forms of internal violence, including civil war,genocide, reprisal killings and (counter-)insurgency. While these events all occurred in 1990-1998, their geographic location within Rwanda differred, with the genocide especially severe in the South of the country, the civil war and reprisal killings mostly taking place in the North and East, and the (counter-)insurgency concentrated in the Northwest. In order to assess the relative impact of the different forms of violence, this article derives a detailed spatial pattern of excess mortality from the population census. In line with previous evidence on the death toll of armed conflict in Rwanda, we find significant high-high excess mortality clusters in the southern province of Butare, in and around Kigali City, and in the eastern province Kibungo. Furthermore, we present the first quantitative evidence to date of high excess mortality in the northwestern porvince Gisenyi, indicating that the 1995-1998 (counter-)insurgency inflicted a much higher death toll on the population than presently acknowledged by the Rwandan government, the UN and large western donors.

Suggested Citation

  • Marijke verpoorten, 2010. "Detecting Hidden Violence: The Spatial Distribution of Excess Mortality in Rwanda," LICOS Discussion Papers 25410, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  • Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:25410
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    File URL: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/licos/publications/dp/dp254.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Restrepo, Jorge & Spagat, Michael & Vargas, Juan F, 2004. "The Severity of the Colombian Conflict: Cross-Country Dataset versus New Micro Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 4571, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    4. Marijke Verpoorten & Lode Berlage, 2007. "Economic Mobility in Rural Rwanda: A Study of the Effects of War and Genocide at the Household Level," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(3), pages 349-392, June.
    5. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
    6. Ward, Michael D. & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2002. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 244-260, June.
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    8. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Guariso & Marijke Verpoorten, 2013. "Armed conflict and schooling in Rwanda: Digging deeper," LICOS Discussion Papers 34313, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    2. Bonnier, Evelina & Poulsen, Jonas & Rogall, Thorsten & Stryjan, Miri, 2015. "Preparing for Genocide: Community Work in Rwanda," Working Paper Series 2015:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Serneels , Pieter & Verpoorten , Marijke, 2012. "The impact of armed conflict on economic performance. Evidence from Rwanda," NEPS Working Papers 5/2012, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    4. Verpoorten, Marijke, 2014. "Growth, poverty and inequality in Rwanda: A broad perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series 138, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Bonnier, Evelina & Poulsen, Jonas & Rogall, Thorsten & Stryjan, Miri, 2015. "Preparing for Genocide: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Rwanda," SITE Working Paper Series 31, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, revised 10 Nov 2016.
    6. Verpoorten Marijke, 2012. "The Intensity of the Rwandan Genocide: Measures from the Gacaca Records," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Verpoorten, Marijke, 2011. "Measure for measure: how well do we measure micro-level conflict intensity?," IOB Working Papers 2011.08, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    9. Giacomo De Luca & Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "From vice to virtue? Civil war and social capital in Uganda," LICOS Discussion Papers 29811, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    armed conflict; genocide; excess mortality; Rwanda;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • Y80 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines - - - Related Disciplines

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