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Credibility of Monetary Policy in Four Accession Countries: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach

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  • Philip Arestis
  • Kostas Mouratidis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to estimate the credibility of monetary policy in four accession countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic), based on the Markov regime-switching (MRS) framework. We utilize the theoretical proposition that in the conduct of monetary policy, there is uncertainty in terms of the type of central bank. We measure this uncertainty as a deviation of monetary policy from a target level. We utilize for the target level the differential between the interest rates of the four individual accession countries and a "synthetic" interest rate of 11 EMU member countries.

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  • Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2003. "Credibility of Monetary Policy in Four Accession Countries: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_371, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_371
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    1. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 327-350.
    2. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 530-538.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    4. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, pages 137-190.
    6. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1992. "Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 493-507.
    7. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1996. "Interest rate convergence, capital controls, risk premia and foreign exchange market efficiency in the EMS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 693-714.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Raybaut & Dominique Torre, 2004. "Unions monétaires, caisses d'émission et dollarisation : les fondements analytiques des systèmes de change « ultra-fixes »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 37-54.
    2. Pawe³ Gajewski, 2017. "Patterns of regional inflation persistence in a CEE country. The case of Poland," Lodz Economics Working Papers 5/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    3. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    4. Begović, Selena & Adnett, Nick & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "An investigation into the credibility of currency board arrangements in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, pages 787-799.
    5. Jií Schwarz & Josef Sima, 2011. "The Euro as a Hindrance to Recovery? A Comparative Analysis of the Czech Republic and Slovakia," Chapters,in: Institutions in Crisis, chapter 10 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.

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